Analyzing a Competitive Renewal of the Ginger Brew Stakes

One of the most competitive races on the stakes-packed January 6th card at Gulfstream Park is the $100,000 Ginger Brew Stakes for three-year-old fillies.

The 7 ½-furlong turf race has attracted ten starters without an obvious favorite, making it an excellent betting race. The most accomplished horse in the field is #6 Malibu Saint, who enters off a victory in the one-mile Wait a While Stakes at Gulfstream last month. In that race, Malibu Saint showed remarkable determination to rally and win by a half-length despite being bumped during a rough run down the homestretch. She also had trouble two starts back when second by a neck in an allowance race at Keeneland; while unleashing a big rally from off the pace, Malibu Saint lost some momentum when the eventual winner #5 Thewayiam drifted out in the homestretch. If not for that incident, Malibu Saint might have won.

Trainer Mike Maker and jockey Luis Saez have done very well at the current Gulfstream meet, winning at 20% and 23% rates, respectively, and betting them when they team up has yielded a positive return on investment over the last two months. Malibu Saint has drawn well in post six, and there should be enough speed to set up her late run. She looks like the most likely winner.

#5 Thewayiam will be back to face Malibu Saint again, but enters off a distant eleventh-place finish in the Jimmy Durante Stakes (gr. III) at Del Mar on November 25th and will need to rebound from that disappointing effort on the opposite coast. However, she will be carrying four pounds less than Malibu Saint, which could make a difference considering they carried even weights in their Keeneland meeting.

A newcomer to keep an eye on is #8 Andina Del Sur, a Thomas Albertrani-trained filly that enters off a two-length debut win sprinting six furlongs at Belmont on October 28th. Her victory was achieved in a quick time and yielded solid speed figures; furthermore, she races for Don Alberto Stable, which has been enjoying increasing success in major races across the country, and is bred to stretch out in distance.

#9 Delamar has raced primarily on the Tapeta track at Woodbine thus far, but the Roger Attfield-trainee did break her maiden impressively over the turf course at Woodbine and was good enough to compete in the prestigious Natalma Stakes (gr. I) on grass. Since arriving in Florida, she has posted three very sharp  workouts, including four furlongs in a bullet :47 flat on December 30th. She looks ready to roll in her U.S. debut.

Let’s box these four in the trifecta while adding a second ticket emphasizing Malibu Saint and Delamar on top:

$1 trifecta: 5,6,8,9 with 5,6,8,9 with 5,6,8,9 ($24) $0.50 trifecta: 6,9 with 5,6,8,9 with 5,6,8,9 ($6)

Good luck!