Analyzing Aqueduct’s $24,847 Pick 6 carryover

The Saturday card at Aqueduct is an excellent one highlighted by four graded stakes and a $24,847 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

Two of the stakes are “Win and You’re In” qualifiers to the Nov. 1-2 Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar. The $400,000 Frizette (G1), Race 7, awards a berth to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), while the $500,000 Champagne (G1), Race 8, is a steppingstone to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).

The Frizette and the Champagne happen to be the first two legs of the Pick 6, which kicks off at 3:17 p.m. ET. The one-mile Frizette is a tough race to handicap following the scratch of heavy morning line favorite #8 Senza Parole (3-5). In her absence, spreading deep may be necessary to survive in the Pick 6.

Our top choice is #1 Snowyte (6-1), runner-up in a reasonably quick seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga last month. Trainer Danny Gargan wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time, and the fact Snowyte is adding blinkers (a 23% winning move for Gargan) cements the daughter of War Front as a logical win threat.

But others warrant inclusion as well. #2 The Queen M G (10-1) and #3 Pondering (12-1) misfired over a muddy track in the Spinaway (G1) last time out, finishing fifth and seventh. But The Queen M G had previously won the Adirondack (G3) and Schuylerville S., and Pondering won her debut in fine fashion, so they’re eligible to rebound over a (presumably) fast track in the Frizette.

We also have to use #9 Social Fortress (12-1), who hasn’t been challenged in two starts, including a seven-length romp in the one-mile Sorority S. at Monmouth Park.

The one-mile Champagne is shaping up as a tough race too. John Mucciolo of TwinSpires is keen to support undefeated Hopeful (G1) winner #10 Chancer McPatrick (6-5), and indeed, the stretch-running colt is a formidable win contender.

But there are many other promising horses in the field. We’ll try to get by using only the debut winners #2 Tip Top Thomas (7-2), #5 Uncaged (9-2), and #9 Executive Order (15-1) alongside Chancer McPatrick. Uncaged in particular is intriguing; the stoutly bred son of Curlin won his debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, but is bred to thrive while stretching out over one mile.

Since we’re recommending spreading deep in the Frizette and Champagne, finding a trustworthy single elsewhere in the Pick 6 will be necessary to keep costs down. The option we recommend is #3 Transactional (2-1) in Race 9, a $50,000 starter optional claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on turf.

Transactional proved best in a $50,000 claimer racing 1 1/16 miles over the Saratoga grass last month, prevailing by a nose with a career-best 90 Brisnet Speed rating. That number looks formidable against Saturday’s field. Transactional has the tactical speed to work out a favorable trip under hot jockey Flavien Prat (a 29% winner teaming up with trainer Chad Brown over the last two months), so the stage appears set for Transactional to nab a second straight victory.

Good luck!