Analyzing Aqueduct's $33,453 Pick 6 carryover

The Sunday card at Aqueduct (racing under “Belmont at the Big A” branding) features an enticing $33,453 non-jackpot carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

The Pick 6 gets underway in Race 4 (post time 2:12 p.m. ET), and a tricky sequence is the agenda. Two of the six races are grass events, but rain forced most of Saturday’s grass races at Aqueduct to be transferred to the main track, and it’s possible Aqueduct will be off the turf again on Sunday.

That could potentially simplify the handicapping of Race 7, a $45,000 allowance optional claimer for New York-breds. Assuming the race is switched from one mile on turf to one mile on dirt, a handful of main-track only entrants will draw in. #13 Shadow Dragon (8-5) is one of them, and he could start as the favorite after hitting the board in three straight races at this class level.

But we also recommend using #11 Cut the Cord (2-1). Conditioned by hot trainer Jeremiah Englehart (a 38% winner at Aqueduct this meet), Cut the Cord rallied nicely to finish second in a $25,000 starter allowance at Aqueduct last month, beaten only a head by a next-out winner. Two starts back, Cut the Cord crushed a one-mile allowance for New York-breds at Saratoga by 3 1/2 lengths. He brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and has every chance to win.

The other grass event is Race 9, a $40,000 maiden claimer for New York-bred fillies and mares. It’s a considerably more wide-open event without any main-track-only entrants, so we’ll have to wait and see the scratches before we can hazard a guess as to who might win.

At least we can offer an early opinion on Race 8, a six-furlong dirt allowance for New York-breds. Only seven horses have entered, which makes it a favorable spot in which to seek a Pick 6 single.

#3 G Munning (9-5) is the morning line favorite after finishing third and fourth in a pair of allowance contests at Saratoga, but the four-year-old gelding has lost 10 straight races over the last two seasons and has a tendency to settle for minor awards.

Let’s try to beat G Munning with #5 Newport Bridge (5-2). The three-year-old gelding has speed and ran well in a couple of New York-bred allowance sprints at Saratoga during the summer. In a 5 1/2-furlong contest on Aug. 26, he dueled throughout before weakening in the final strides to finish third by a neck. Nine days later, he tackled a six-furlong dash and got involved in a very fast pace before tiring to finish fourth behind a next-out winner.

Newport Bridge has been rested since Saratoga, so if he gets an easier pace setup on Sunday (and there’s a good chance he will), he can step forward and deliver victory as a slightly creative Pick 6 single.

Good luck!