Analyzing carryovers at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in a bevy of non-jackpot Saturday carryovers at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, and Turfway Park.

Aqueduct, Race 5: $24,874 Pick 6 carryover (2:16 p.m. ET)

The Saturday card at Aqueduct just got even better. The Withers (G3) is the highlight from a sporting perspective, but bettors will be just as excited for the $24,874 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, you’re advised to check out Race 10, the final leg of the six-race sequence. Race 10 is a $25,000 maiden claimer for New York-bred three-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt, conditions seemingly perfect for morning line favorite #4 Central Love (9-5).

Central Love hasn’t missed the board in three starts against tougher competition at Aqueduct. He debuted in a $40,000 maiden claimer and rallied boldly to finish second by a head. Then, after running fourth in a maiden special weight, he returned to the $40,000 maiden claiming level and finished third.

Central Love boasts strong Brisnet Speed ratings and is adding Lasix in his first start since being claimed by hot trainer Linda Rice, a 22% winner with new claiming acquisitions. A typical performance from Central Love should be sufficient to prevail as a short-priced single.

Fair Grounds, Race 4: $5,393 Pick 6 carryover (3:45 p.m. ET)
Fair Grounds, Race 5: $7,924 Pick 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)

Fair Grounds has not one, but two carryovers up for grabs on Saturday. The $1 Pick 6 boasts a $5,393 prize pool while the 50-cent Pick 5 offers an even larger $7,924 carryover.

Competitive sequences are on tap, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see a longshot or two visit the winner’s circle. If you want to get in on the longshot action, you might try supporting #4 Unaffiliated (12-1) in Race 6, a maiden special weight taking place over six furlongs on dirt.

The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is an 87, a number none of the experienced runners have reached. Therefore, the first-time starter Unaffiliated shouldn’t have to run a giant race to challenge. The four-year-old gelding breezed a bullet three furlongs at Fair Grounds back in December, and trainer Denis Schmidt wins at a 25% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, so Unaffiliated is eligible to outrun his odds.

Turfway Park, Race 8: $2,072 Super High 5 carryover (9:25 p.m. ET)

We’ll wrap up our carryover coverage with a quick mention of the $2,072 Super High 5 carryover at Turfway Park.

The $1 wager is on the table in Race 8, a $7,500 claimer for horses who have never won two races. In terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, one of the fastest entrants in this one-mile Tapeta test is #2 Seven and Seven (10-1), a longshot with a chance to outrun expectations.

Seven and Seven posted a sharp 81 Brisnet Speed rating when leading all the way to win a $7,500 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles at Turfway in December. Seven and Seven has faltered in two subsequent runs, but one was a $15,000 claiming sprint in which Seven and Seven suffered a poor start, and the other was a $30,000 claimer. Dropping down to the $7,500 level might be all Seven and Seven needs to bounce back with a competitive run, making him a must-use horse in the Super High 5.

Good luck!