Analyzing carryovers galore at Fair Grounds and Woodbine

J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to play in Sunday carryovers at Fair Grounds and Woodbine, including Woodbine’s mandatory-payout $113,156 Pick 6.

Fair Grounds, Race 3: $2,133 Pick 6 carryover (2:45 p.m. ET)

After going unsolved on Friday and Saturday, the $1 Pick 6 at Fair Grounds features a $2,133 carryover for Sunday’s card.

One of the most interesting legs of the sequence is Race 4, a $5,000 claimer for horses who have never won two races, excluding certain $5,000 claimers for Louisiana-breds. The distance is one mile on dirt, and there isn’t much pace in the seven-horse field.

Indeed, the only definite speed horse on paper is #3 Time to Meddle (7-2), who has set the pace in five of his last six starts. He got burned out when setting decent fractions over this track, distance, and class level on Nov. 24, fading to finish fourth by 12 3/4 lengths. But two starts back at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Time to Meddle escaped with slow fractions of :25.44, :49.73, and 1:14.27 before staying on to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths in a $5,000 claimer.

Time to Meddle appears likely to escape with an uncontested lead on Sunday, and if he’s able to slow down the pace, who knows? He might just lead all the way in his first start since being claimed by trainer David Terre (a 33% winner with new claiming acquisitions), so don’t leave Time to Meddle out of the Pick 6.

Woodbine, Race 5: $113,156 Pick 6 mandatory payout (3:03 p.m. ET)
Woodbine, Race 10: $10,052 Super High 5 mandatory payout (5:37 p.m. ET)

A couple of jackpot-style wagers are slated for mandatory payouts on closing day of the Woodbine meet. The prize pool for the 20-cent “Power Pick 6” stands at $113,156 USD ($151,629 CAD), while the 20-cent Super High 5 boasts a $10,052 USD ($13,470 CAD) carryover.

Both wagers involve Race 10, the closing leg of the Pick 6 and the race in which Super High 5 betting is offered. Race 10 is a $25,000 claimer for horses who have never won three races, and the distance is 6 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. A field of 13 has been entered, so narrowing down the most likely winner isn’t easy.

That said, #2 Quiet Intent (8-1) is a compelling price play. Two starts back, he surged from off the pace to dominate a seven-furlong $25,000 claimer for non-winners of two races by 2 1/2 lengths, earning a flashy 86 Brisnet Speed rating. He subsequently faded (and lost his rider) after pressing the pace in a $40,000 optional claimer at Woodbine, an effort we’ll forgive.

Only two horses in Sunday’s field have posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86: #12 Nonno’s Little Boy (10-1) and #13 Classic Dancer (6-1). Since they’re marooned in outside posts, Quiet Intent has a shot to spring a nice-priced surprise, so we suggest using him in the Pick 6 and playing him across multiple slots of the Super High 5, including the top spot.

Good luck!