Analyzing stakes in the Fair Grounds $8,163 Pick 6 carryover

The $1 Pick 6 has gone unsolved for three straight racing days at Fair Grounds, triggering a triple carryover worth $8,163 for Saturday’s card.

The six-race sequence gets underway in Race 5 (post time 3:45 p.m. ET) and includes a pair of stakes for Louisiana-bred three-year-olds. Fillies will take the stage in Race 8, the one-mile $100,000 Louisiana Broodmare of the Year “Lipstick Junky” S., while colts and geldings will star in Race 10, the one-mile and 70-yard $100,000 Louisiana Stallion of the Year “Star Guitar” S.

In the Lipstick Junky, it’s difficult to narrow down the key contenders. #4 Accommodate Eva (4-1) and #5 Clearly a Test (3-1) have won stakes sprinting against Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds, but they’ve combined to go 0-for-3 running long. #3 Lightofmaine (4-1) exits victory in a one-mile stakes for Louisiana-breds over the bullring track at Delta Downs (where she’s 3-for-3), but her 0-for-2 record at Fair Grounds includes distant stakes defeats against Clearly a Test and Accommodate Eva.

The problem is, four of the five remaining entrants have been defeated by one or more of the three favorites, some of them on multiple occasions. The only one who hasn’t is #1 Wonderrand (10-1), a narrow maiden winner sprinting five furlongs at Delta Downs three weeks ago. Ultimately, we’ll try to squeak through the Lipstick Junky using only Accommodate Eva, Clearly a Test, and Wonderrand, though bettors with large budgets might want to spread deeper.

At least the Star Guitar appears more straightforward. #6 El Dinero (3-1) hasn’t missed the trifecta in seven starts, including six consecutive stakes. He’s won stakes against Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds, Evangeline Downs, and Delta Downs, and he handled one mile when posting a two-length victory in Delta’s Louisiana Bred Premier Prince S. three weeks ago.

#4 Good and Stout (7-2) looms as the most obvious challenger to El Dinero; they’ve squared off five times, with Good and Stout finishing ahead of his rival on three occasions. But those three meetings came in sprints, and Good and Stout weakened to finish second by two lengths against El Dinero when stretching out over one mile for the Premier Prince.

Now, the Premier Prince took place over a muddy track, so Good and Stout has a potential path to turning the tables on El Dinero over dry footing at Fair Grounds. To be on the safe side, Pick 6 bettors might want to include them both.

Good luck!