Analyzing Super High 5 carryovers at Tampa, Gulfstream

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson turns his attention to Florida for a pair of Sunday Super High 5 carryovers at Tampa Bay Downs and Gulfstream Park.

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 1: $4,858 Super High 5 carryover (12:15 p.m. ET)

Only seven horses have entered Sunday’s first race at Tampa Bay Downs, a $12,500 starter optional claimer for fillies and mares racing one mile and 40 yards on dirt. That means bettors chasing the $4,858 carryover in the $1 Super High 5 have only 2,520 possible outcomes to analyze.

The morning line favorite is #3 Tiz Herself (7-5), and for obvious reasons. The six-year-old mare has won nine of her last 13 starts (and 13 of her last 20) while routinely throwing down Brisnet Speed ratings of 81 and higher. On March 1, she closed nicely to win a race over Sunday’s track, distance, and class level by 1 1/2 lengths, earning an 83 Brisnet Speed rating.

The par winning number for Sunday’s conditions is 82, so Tiz Herself is an obvious choice to win right back for trainer John Rigattieri, who strikes at a 28% rate with last-out winners. We’ll key her on top in the Super High 5.

For second place, we’ll count on #4 Aferdita (2-1), the runner-up on March 1 after leading for much of the journey. She’d previously won a $12,500 starter optional claimer sprinting six furlongs at Tampa and an $8,000 claimer racing one mile and 40 yards over the same track, so Aferdita enters in hot form and will be tough to keep out of the top two.

• $1 Super High 5: 3 with 4 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,2,5,6 with 1,2,5,6,7 ($36)

Gulfstream Park, Race 10: $4,555 Super High 5 carryover (5:36 p.m. ET)

Gulfstream Park is getting in on the Sunday carryover action with a $4,555 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

The prize pool is available to chase in Race 10, a maiden special weight for three-year-old fillies racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. #3 Positive Carry (5-2) is the morning line choice for trainer Chad Brown after finishing second by a neck in a one-mile contest over this course and class level on Feb. 14, but her 0-for-4 lifetime record is a cause for pause. She has a tendency to settle for minor awards.

Perhaps #7 Maghra (15-1) can spring a surprise at double-digit odds. The well-bred daughter of No Nay Never debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Ellis Park last summer, finishing fifth behind next-out Natalma (G1) winner She Feels Pretty.

Maghra disappeared from the work tab following her debut and didn’t return to serious training until January. Since then, she’s put together a sharp series of workouts including eight breezes over the Palm Meadows turf course. She’s adding Lasix and blinkers for trainer Brendan Walsh, who wins at a 20% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so there’s a lot to like about Maghra. Consider using her prominently in the Super High 5, including on top.

We’ll also place a $20 win bet on Maghra, since her 15-1 odds are enticing:

• $20 to win on #7 Maghra

Good luck!