Analyzing Super High 5 carryovers: Churchill Downs opener, Woodbine mandatory payout

A couple of Super High 5 carryovers are worth pursuing this Sunday.

At Churchill Downs, there’s a $6,686 prize pool up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5. Meanwhile at Woodbine, a $252,068 USD ($347,854 CAD) jackpot carryover in the 20-cent Super High 5 is slated for mandatory payout.

Let’s take a look at both:

Churchill Downs, Race 1: $6,685 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Race 1 is a $100,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds and older horses sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. There are several logical contenders in the seven-horse field, but we’re keenest to support #1 Brownstone (4-1), who has competed exclusively against maiden special weight company so far.

Brownstone finished fourth and fifth in his first two starts sprinting six furlongs, earning respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 74 and 75. Then he stretched out over one mile at Oaklawn Park and finished second by one length after leading in midstretch. That effort yielded an 85 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest number in Sunday’s field.

Dropping in class should help Brownstone challenge for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, who wins at a 23% rate with horses transitioning from maiden special weight to maiden claiming competition. #6 Redeposit (3-1) and #7 Air It Out (5-2), who are likewise dropping in class out of maiden special weights, loom as the other key win threats.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7 with 6,7 with 2 with 3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 with 2 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 1 with 6,7 with 2 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 1 with 6,7 with 2 with 3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 1 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 with 2 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 1 with 2 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 6,7 with 1 with 2 with 3,4,5 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 6,7 with 1 with 3,4,5 with 2 ($6)
• $1 Super High 5: 6,7 with 2 with 1 with 6,7 with 3,4,5 ($6)
  Total: $54

Woodbine, Race 10: $252,068 Super High 5 mandatory payout (6:12 p.m. ET)

A 13-horse field will race 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta in this $50,000 allowance optional claimer for three-year-olds and older horses. It’s a tough race to handicap, but if you’re looking for a horse to build tickets around, #13 Cool Kiss (3-1) seems like a safe bet.

Cool Kiss has repeatedly run well against tough competition over the Woodbine Tapeta. As a three-year-old last year, he finished second in the 1 1/8-mile Plate Trial S. behind Paramount Prince, who came back to win the historic $1 million King’s Plate S. He later placed third in the 1 1/8-mile Ontario Derby (G3).

On May 17, Cool Kiss made his second start of 2024 (and his first at Woodbine) in a $50,000 allowance optional claimer racing 1 1/16 miles. After waiting in traffic around the far turn, he closed ground gamely to finish second by a head.

We don’t view Cool Kiss as a horse to key on top in the Super High 5 (the far outside post position is a concern), but he has a strong chance to finish in the top three, and counting on him to finish first, second, or third is a good way to start assembling tickets.

Good luck!