Are the Preakness favorites vulnerable?

What does it mean when a betting favorable is "vulnerable"? And should the betting favorites in Saturday’s $1 million Preakness (G1) be defined as such?

Pinning down the exact meaning of “vulnerable favorite” is tricky.

At first glance, it should be straightforward — any betting favorite at risk of being defeated is technically vulnerable to an upset. But since there’s no such thing as a sure thing in horse racing, doesn’t this mean any favorite could be considered vulnerable?

I would argue there are actually two requirements for a favorite to be considered vulnerable. They must be facing new, unusual, or challenging circumstances, which increase their risk of defeat. And they must be favored at a short enough price to be considered an “underlay,” the term for a horse starting at a shorter price than their chance of victory warrants.

The Preakness presents a perfect opportunity to examine the definition of a vulnerable favorite. Two horses — #9 Authentic (9-5) and #3 Art Collector (5-2) — have emerged a cut above their rivals.

Authentic will start at a short price based off his frontrunning victory in the Kentucky Derby (G1), while Art Collector looms as a heavily bet alternative, after he scored decisive wins in the Blue Grass (G2) and Ellis Park Derby.

Authentic deserves plenty of respect for trainer Bob Baffert, who has won all five of his Preakness starts with Kentucky Derby winners. A four-time graded stakes winner, Authentic has a ton of tactical speed and showed tenacity to turn back heavy favorite Tiz the Law in the Derby at Churchill Downs, where he won by 1 1/4 lengths in the rapid time of 2:00.61.

But Authentic was overlooked at odds of 8-1 at Churchill Downs and enjoyed a relatively uncontested lead. In the Preakness, he’ll have a target on his back in a race packed with other pace players, which sets up the potential for a less relaxed journey. Authentic suffered the lone defeat of his career when beaten to the lead in the Santa Anita Derby (G1), so if he encounters pace pressure at Pimlico, this could introduce an element of vulnerability.

In this respect, Art Collector arguably has fewer chinks in his armor. The stoutly bred son of Bernardini is undefeated in four starts this season and has displayed the ability to win with any running style. No matter how the Preakness unfolds, Art Collector should be able to work out a clean trip.

But will he be ready for a peak effort, after he missed the Kentucky Derby — and a bit of training — with a minor hoof issue?

Whether Authentic and/or Art Collector warrant betting comes down to their odds. I believe there’s an 80% chance one will prevail in the Preakness, with a slight advantage going to Authentic — perhaps 45% to 35%. At these percentages, Authentic is a fair bet at 6-5 and Art Collector is fair value at 9-5, considerably shorter prices than their morning line odds.

Assuming the morning line odds hold up, I would be happy to bet both Authentic and Art Collector in the Preakness. They might not be unbeatable — no horse is — but odds of 9-5 and 5-2 would be sufficient to offset their potential vulnerabilities.