Arkansas Derby BRIS Speed Report

The $1 million Arkansas Derby (G1) at Oaklawn Park serves as the final of seven major prep races for the 145^th Kentucky Derby on May 4, awarding points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the top four finishers, and a field of 11 is set for the 1 1/8-mile test. Before we analyze the BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s Arkansas Derby runners, let’s take review the numbers for the previous 10 winners. Here are the BRIS Speed ratings for Arkansas Derby winners entering the race:

Horse		BRIS Speed
Magnum Moon		100
		90
Classic Empire		92
		108
Creator		95
		93
American Pharoah		99
		99
Danza		87
		96
Overanalyze		94
		104
Bodemeister		102
		101
Archarcharch		98
		93
Line of David		93
		87
Papa Clem		94
		96

Analysis: Every winner posted a 92 BRIS Speed rating or better over the last two starts. Danza (87) is the only winner to earn a BRIS Speed rating lower than 90 in the last two preps. Five brought increasing BRIS Speed ratings into the race. Four registered at least one triple-digit BRIS Speed rating in the last two starts. Three winners showed a significant BRIS Speed rating decline in the previous start: Classic Empire (16-point drop), Overanalyze (10) and Danza (nine). Magnum Moon entered off a 10-point BRIS Speed rating increase. Here are the last two BRIS Speed ratings for this year’s field (listed in post order):

Horse		BRIS Speed
Improbable		97
		100
Six Shooter		92
		90
Omaha Beach		98
		96
Tikhvin Flew		89
		97
Laughing Fox		83
		93
Gray Attempt		97
		75
Galilean		94
		92
Country House		95
		93
One Flew South		82
		85
Jersey Agenda		86
		82
Long Range Toddy		97
		91

Analysis: Seven runners bring increasing BRIS Speed ratings into the race, including top contenders Omaha Beach (two-point) and Long Range Toddy (six). Improbable is the only runner with a triple-digit BRIS Speed rating, registering a 100 figure two starts back. The morning-line favorite registered a solid 97 Speed rating last out. A quartet of longshots -- Six Shooter, Laughing Fox, One Flew South and Jersey Agenda – bring lower BRIS Speed ratings to the mix. Country House (93-95) and Galilean (92-94) must step up as well to challenge from a BRIS Speed rating perspective. PHOTO: Improbable winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) two starts back © BENOIT PHOTO