Ashland Stakes: Betting with, and against, Wonder Wheel

Champion juvenile filly #2 Wonder Wheel (8-5) is understandably at short odds for the seven-horse Ashland (G1) at Keeneland on Friday.

However, after a surprise defeat for Wonder Wheel on her three-year-old debut, it’s entirely reasonable to look elsewhere in the Ashland for a winner. So what are your best options?

Wonder Wheel was clearly the best dirt juvenile filly of 2022, producing contrasting Grade 1 victories at Keeneland: going wire to wire in the Alcibiades, and rallying from third last in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies.

Expectations were high when she resumed in the Suncoast S. at Tampa Bay. She looked set for victory when cruising into the race on the turn, but she ran out of gas and couldn’t get by longshot Dreaming of Snow. It was an unexpected defeat, but she raced as if she needed the run, and she will be widely expected to put up an improved effort here.

Third in the Suncoast was #4 Julia Shining (3-1), a sister to two-time Eclipse Award winner Malathaat. She showed she inherited some of the family ability when winning the Demoiselle (G2) on her second start; she may also improve with the run.

But perhaps a better chance to topple Wonder Wheel is #5 Punchbowl (2-1). She’s unbeaten in two Oaklawn Park starts: a maiden Feb. 11 and a 1 1/16-mile allowance March 5, relishing the extra distance in the latter. She looks a filly of some ability for Brad Cox and can definitely measure up.

One that might be worth a second chance is Californian raider #1 Pride of the Nile (12-1). She twice pushed leading Californian filly Faiza in the Starlet (G1) and Las Virgenes (G3), and though disappointing when last of five behind Faiza in the Santa Ysabel (G3) at Santa Anita March 5, she was agitated beforehand and hit the gate at the start. If her raceday manners are better, she’s not out of this.

Also worth a thought is #3 Guns n’ Graces (8-1); she came from a long way back to take second in the Davona Dale (G2) March 4, but will probably need a strong pace to have a chance.

If you fancy Wonder Wheel, she’s a good potential anchor for some exotics; if the first-up defeat concerns you, I’d look at Punchbowl and maybe Pride of the Nile to play spoiler.

Betting with Wonder Wheel

• $20 win: #2 Wonder Wheel ($20)
• $2 trifecta: 2 with 1, 4, 5 with 1, 3, 4, 5 ($18)
• 20-cent superfecta: 2 with 1, 4, 5 with 1, 3, 4, 5 with all ($7.20)

Betting against Wonder Wheel

• $10 win/$20 place: #5 Punchbowl ($30)
• $1 trifecta: 1, 5 with 1, 2, 5 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ($12)