Australia Preview: Kibou, Nettuno can prevail at Rosehill

With TwinSpires offering its Rest Of The World Bet Back every Friday night on all races from Sydney, Edge will be analyzing at least one race on the card each week.

The road to the 1,400-meter (about 7-furlong) Golden Rose (G1), Sydney’s spring highlight for sprinting three-year-olds, on September 24 gets into full swing this weekend with two group races for the sophomore generation at Rosehill Gardens.

The 1,300-meter (about 6 1/2-furlong) Up and Coming S. (G3) and the 1,100-meter (about 5 1/2-furlong) San Domenico S. (G3) headline the card at Rosehill, and though the Up and Coming has attracted some horses whose main spring aim could be the 2,000-meter (about 1 1/4-mile) Spring Champion S. (G1) in October, most of the horses between the two races will be aimed at the A$1 million Golden Rose.

Let’s have a look at how the two races might work out.

Race 8, 1:50 a.m. Saturday: Up and Coming S. (G3), 1,300 meters (about 6 1/2 furlongs), 3-year-olds

An intriguing race, with half of the field not having run for some time. #1 Williamsburg is the most accomplished, having won two black type races and placing third in the 1,600-meter Champagne S. (G1) last autumn. But given he is conceding 4 to 6kg (9-13 pounds) to all his opponents, he has a tough task to win.

Three horses that haven’t started since the 1,600-meter J.J. Atkins (G1) in Queensland in early June also reappear: #2 Basquiat, #4 Lethal Thoughts, and #5 Ringmaster. All were fewer than two lengths from the winner, but they are also all likely to need the run and will probably prefer longer trips.

The ones to watch might well be #8 Kibou and #11 Conqueror. Both have recent racing in their favor, and they have looked good. Kibou wasn’t far away when fourth in the Listed 1,100m Rosebud Aug. 13, and will probably appreciate the 1,300 meters. His barrier draw of 11 isn’t great, but on a possibly soft track it may not be too much of a hindrance at the end of the day.

Conqueror won his only juvenile start in February. Well-favored when resuming Aug. 6, he ran a little greenly in the stretch when second to Arnaqueur and may well improve, though he could be better at a longer trip.

• $10 win/$20 place: #8 Kibou ($30)
• $1 trifecta: 8, 11 with 2, 8, 11 with 1, 2, 3, 6, 8, 9, 11 ($20)

Race 9, 2:30 a.m. Saturday: San Domenico S. (G3), 1,100 meters (about 5 1/2 furlongs), 3-year-olds

Ratings-wise, this is a stronger race than the Up and Coming. Four of the 12 runners are unbeaten heading into the contest: #3 Promitto, #5 Nettuno, #7 Zoukerino, and #11 Buenos Noches, and all will have their followers. But all have a bit to make up in ratings points on the overwhelming favorite, #1 Best of Bordeaux.

Trained on Queensland’s Gold Coast by Kacy Fogden, Best of Bordeaux was asked to tackle stakes company on debut in the Canonbury (G3), but easily defeated his more experienced rivals. He then won the Silver Slipper (G2) before suffering his only defeat in the world’s richest juvenile race, the Golden Slipper (G1), where he was beaten only by the filly Fireburn.

That effort was enough for Coolmore to buy the Snitzel colt as a potential stallion. The global breeding giant also has thoughts that he could be their representative in the A$15 million Everest against older horses in October, but for that to happen he’ll need to win a race like this.

However, Best of Bordeaux was as short as 7-5 in early markets for the Up and Coming, and punters may prefer to take a chance on another Queenslander in Nettuno. He’s unbeaten in three starts and at his third start, the Ken Russell Memorial Classic (G3), he beat Best of Bordeaux’s stablemate Midnight in Tokyo, while in third place was Sheeza Belter, who subsequently won the Queensland Sires’ Produce (G2) and the J.J. Atkins.

I will have a go on Nettuno to win, while using him and Best of Bordeaux to anchor trifectas.

• $10 win/$20 place: #5 Nettuno ($30)
• $2 trifecta: 1, 5 with 1, 5 with 2, 3, 4, 7, 8, 9 ($24)

Bonus play – New Zealand

Te Rapa, Race 6: Foxbridge Plate (G2), 1,200 meters

• $10 win/$30 place, #1 Tavi Mac: Seems to have recovered from problems of last season. Trialed well and loves heavy tracks.