2022 Belmont Stakes: Brisnet Speed Rating Report

Eight horses, including Kentucky Derby upsetter Rich Strike, are set for Saturday’s 154th running of the $1.5 million Belmont S. (G1). Known as “The Test of the Champion,” the 1 1/2-mile Belmont is the longest Grade 1 dirt race in North America.

We the People, who will join the Triple Crown mix following a 10-length win in the local prep, the May 14 Peter Pan (G3) at Belmont Park, has been installed as the 2-1 morning line favorite, and the once-beaten colt will be the one to catch as the projected pacesetter.

Mo Donegal, who has won his last three starts in New York, including a pair of Grade 2 stakes, is listed as the 5-2 second choice following a rallying fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

How does the Belmont field stack up from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective?

Let’s examine the contenders, ranked by highest last-out number.

Takeaways

Over the last 10 runnings, eight Belmont winners received a triple-digit Brisnet Speed in at least one of their two preceding starts. Palace Malice (13-1 in 2013) and Tapwrit (5-1 in 2017) were the exceptions.

Four entrants — We the People, Rich Strike, Creative Minister, and Nest — registered a triple-digit Speed rating in their last start. Two others, Mo Donegal and Skippylongstocking, reached the threshold two back.

Creative Minister is the only contestant to earn triple-digit Speed numbers in the last two outings, netting a 101 figure for his third in the Preakness (G1) and an entry-level allowance win on the Kentucky Derby undercard.

Barber Road and Golden Glider are the only horses without a triple-digit Speed figure to their credit.

Mo Donegal received a field-best 111 figure for his neck win over Early Voting in the Wood Memorial (G2) two starts back. That rival came back to win the Preakness in his subsequent start, and Mo Donegal did not receive a favorable trip at Churchill Downs last time, breaking slowly from the rail post and angling extremely wide from a favorable inside spot on the far turn.

He’ll need to work out a trip in a field lacking pace, but Mo Donegal looks formidable based upon Speed ratings.

We the People owns the top last-out figure, a 108 for the Peter Pan, and his early speed makes him dangerous on Saturday. His Peter Pan performance did come on a wet track, and it came back 16 points higher than his previous career-best.

Rich Strike also must avoid a regression after a career-best effort, shocking most observers at 80-1 in the Kentucky Derby, but Speed figures didn’t increase wildly last time. The Eric Reed-trained colt earned a 95 figure for his third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G2) two back, and the improving sophomore netted a 102 in the Kentucky Derby.

Nest will make her first start against males following a runner-up in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), and her numbers are respectable.

Good luck with your Belmont selections!