Top 10 storylines for 2025 Belmont Stakes Day

The 157th running of the Belmont S. (G1) anchors a fantastic Saturday of racing at Saratoga. If the third jewel of the Triple Crown offers most of the storylines, the undercard has its own brand of intrigue.

Here are my top 10 items:

A Derby rematch with championship implications

The Belmont promises to decide whether we can take the Kentucky Derby (G1) form literally. If Sovereignty beats Journalism again, the Derby/Belmont double would put him in pole position for an Eclipse Award. But if Journalism gains revenge, he’ll join the club of Preakness (G1)/Belmont winners who leave the pang of a “what-if” from his Derby loss. Like Afleet Alex (2005) and Point Given (2001), Journalism could go down in history as one arguably unlucky to miss a Triple Crown sweep by dropping the first jewel at Churchill Downs. 

Another kind of Derby-Belmont double

The Sovereignty-Journalism rivalry extends to their connections, who will square off earlier Saturday in the Epsom Derby (G1). Journalism’s ownership consortium includes the Coolmore partners, while Sovereignty is a homebred for Godolphin. Their traditional rivalry will be renewed at Epsom when Godolphin’s Ruling Court seeks his own classic double, and Coolmore opposes with a trio, led by Delacroix. The result holds more than rooting interest for their respective fans; you can bet the Epsom Derby-Belmont double as its own wager this year. 

Baeza, an unprecedented third classic winner for Puca?

Baeza is a half-brother to two classic winners, Mage (2023 Kentucky Derby) and Dornoch (2024 Belmont). Their dam, Puca, was recently honored as Broodmare of the Year for her very rare achievement. But she would rewrite the record book if Baeza could become her third U.S. classic winner.  

The May 13 foal, a $1.2 million yearling purchase, has been nurtured carefully by the conservative John Shirreffs. His fast-finishing third in the Kentucky Derby suggests that he might upend the entire narrative focusing on Sovereignty and Journalism. Does it help that his namesake, riding legend Braulio Baeza, won the Belmont three times?

Rodriguez going to bat for Baffert, Smith 

Hall of Famer Mike Smith already has three Belmont wins, the most among still-active riders. His latest came in front-running style with Triple Crown winner Justify (2018). He’ll try to increase his total to four aboard another pacey Bob Baffert colt, Rodriguez, which would rank him fifth on the all-time list. The record is six wins, shared by 19th-century jockey James McLaughlin and Eddie Arcaro, while Earl Sande and Bill Shoemaker boast five apiece. 

Rodriguez could also become the fourth Belmont winner for Baffert. Although that’s just halfway to James Rowe Sr.’s towering stat of eight wins, a fourth would elevate Baffert into a tie with D. Wayne Lukas, Todd Pletcher, and past greats R.W. Walden and Max Hirsch. The concern is that Rodriguez doesn’t have the profile of Baffert’s past winners, Hall of Famer Point Given and Triple Crown champions American Pharoah (2015) and Justify. But the Wood Memorial (G2) romper, who missed the Derby and Preakness with a bruised foot, has dangerous speed. 

Hill Road on the march for Brown

One year ago, Chad Brown endured a frustrating Triple Crown with his highly-regarded Sierra Leone, who just missed by a nose in the Kentucky Derby and closed for third as the Belmont favorite. The five-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer didn’t make the Derby this year, but he has a chance of capturing his first Belmont with Hill Road. 

Interestingly, he has something in common with Brown’s best Belmont finisher, Gronkowski, who was runner-up to Justify. Both were initially trained in Europe. Hill Road has been with Brown a lot longer, though, and he turned in a strong prep victory in the Peter Pan (G3). If Hill Road prevails, he would give jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. his third Belmont win.

Pletcher’s a longshot to tie Woody 

With four Belmont wins on his ledger, Pletcher is just one away from tying the legendary Woody Stephens, who scored an incredible five straight Belmonts in the 1980s. He mathematically has two chances with Crudo and Uncaged, but either would be a surprise. Although Crudo has the speed of sire Justify, he lacks experience coming off his stakes and two-turn debut in the Sir Barton S. Uncaged has promise and pedigree, but the inconsistent colt must rebound from a disappointing Peter Pan. Their respective riders, John Velazquez and Luis Saez, are both going for their third Belmont wins.

Heart of Honor swings for historic upset

Great Britain’s Heart of Honor would be an unusual winner on two counts – as an international raider with a female jockey. Not since Ireland’s Dermot Weld unleashed Go and Go (1990) has a transatlantic shipper plundered the Belmont. And Julie Krone remains the only woman to ride a Belmont winner, Colonial Affair (1993). That’s the company that trainer Jamie Osborne and daughter Saffie would join if Heart of Honor can shock the world. 

Heart of Honor has to move forward considerably from his belated fifth in the Preakness, where he appeared hopelessly beaten after a sluggish start. But he fired a 109 Brisnet Late Pace rating to turn an apparent debacle into a creditable effort, implying that a decent break could put him into the exotics. Runner-up in three dirt classics in Dubai, including the UAE Derby (G2), Heart of Honor hopes to become the seventh British-bred to win the Belmont. The latest was *Celtic Ash (1960). 

Onetime Derby hopes meet one-turn types in Woody Stephens

Last year’s champion two-year-old colt Citizen Bull, who tired to 15th in the Derby, and fellow also-ran Neoequos are among the onetime classic hopes cutting back in trip for the Woody Stephens (G1). Chancer McPatrick, hero of last summer’s Hopeful (G1) at this track and seven-furlong distance, reverts to one turn for the first time since winning the Champagne (G1). Patch Adams turned the page on his Road to the Kentucky Derby flops by capturing a Derby Day sprint allowance at Churchill, while Madaket Road was runner-up in the Pat Day Mile (G2).

Standing in their way are several who appear to be one-turn specialists, including Pat Day Mile upsetter Macho Music, and the troubled fourth Gate to Wire. Note that the brilliant Lafayette S. winner, Colloquial, will be scratched. 

A Met Mile match race?

It’s fitting that Fierceness and White Abarrio drew the two inside posts in the Metropolitan H. (G1), which could develop into a match race. Indeed, the heavyweight clash between two multiple Grade 1-winning multimillionaires ensured a small field. Only three intrepid rivals have opted to take them on, but two of them have claims to get involved – Just a Touch and Raging Torrent. Just a Touch is particularly interesting as he totes just 119 pounds, receiving substantial weight breaks from White Abarrio (126 pounds) and Fierceness (125).

Fierceness could have the upper hand with his 3-for-3 mark at the Spa, including his 11-length debut romp and last year’s Jim Dandy (G2)/Travers (G1) double. White Abarrio has had mixed fortunes here. Yet he’s regained his old sparkle since rejoining Saffie Joseph Jr., and he brings the freshness angle. Fierceness set a track record in his Alysheba (G2) comeback at Churchill, reviving his old question of whether he can put together back-to-back scintillating efforts. 

Miguel Clement upholds legacy in Manhattan

When Far Bridge rolled in the May 10 Man o’ War (G2), one week after stablemates Deterministic and Carson’s Run ran one-two in the Fort Marcy (G2), the Christophe Clement barn promised to hold a strong hand in the Manhattan (G1). And so it does, but in much sadder circumstances after the May 25 passing of the renowned horseman. His son and assistant, Miguel, has seamlessly taken the helm, and already sent out his first winner here on Wednesday. 

Although he’ll have several chances to score his first graded victory during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, the Manhattan would be a particularly poignant spot for it. Christophe won the turf feature three times. After divisional mainstay Forbidden Apple (2001) came multiple Eclipse champion Gio Ponti (2009), who was denied by stablemate Winchester (2010) in his title defense. There won’t be a dry eye in the house if one of Miguel’s trio extends his father’s legacy. They’ll have to get past Spirit of St Louis, the favorite for eight-time Manhattan winner Brown, but they have the credentials to create a heartwarming moment.