Best bets for the $1,000 Churchill Downs KDBC/NHC Qualifier

TwinSpires tournament players have a big prize to chase on Saturday: the $1,000 Churchill Downs KDBC/NHC Qualifier, which awards two National Horseplayers Championship (NHC) seats and multiple Kentucky Derby Betting Challenge (KDBC) seats depending on the number of participants.

The complete rules can be viewed here, but the basics are simple: you must bet your entire $700 bankroll across at least five races (minimum $70 per race) during the Saturday card at Churchill Downs.

That won’t be difficult since Churchill’s Saturday slate is stacked with appealing betting opportunities. Here are a few races, horses, and bets to consider for your tournament plays:

Race 2: #8 Awesome Annmarie (6-5)

Awesome Annmarie is a heavy favorite to win this six-furlong $20,000 claimer for fillies and mares, and deservedly so. Two starts back she dominated a $20,000 claimer at Keeneland by 5 1/4 lengths. Last time out, she finished third by 1 1/2 lengths in a $32,000 claimer at Churchill Downs.

Both of those efforts came sprinting six furlongs. Awesome Annmarie brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings to the table and looks tough to beat under hot jockey Samuel Camacho Jr., a 21% winner teaming up with trainer David Jacobson over the last two months. A $70 win bet on Awesome Annmarie might be a quick way to roughly double your investment.

Race 10: #1 My Boy Prince (6-1)

One of two graded stakes on the card is the Commonwealth Turf (G3) for three-year-olds racing 1 1/16 miles on turf. John Mucciolo of TwinSpires has tabbed My Boy Prince as his top choice (check out his full analysis here), and I’m on the same page.

Third against a pair of international raiders in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last year, My Boy Prince has run into tough circumstances in his last two grass starts. He finished a respectable sixth against older horses in the Woodbine Mile (G1), then set too fast of a pace when fading late to run ninth in the Bryan Station (G3). He looms as the lone pacesetter in the Commonwealth Turf and can win if he shakes loose on an easy lead.

Mucciolo has proposed exotic bets for the Commonwealth Turf, including exacta and trifecta wagers eligible for tournament play. But if My Boy Prince’s 6-1 odds hold up, a $70 win bet can also be a lucrative strategy.

Race 11: #7 Golden Gamble (7-2)

Trainer Kenny McPeek isn’t known for cranking his juveniles to win first-time out, so it was notable to see Golden Gamble rally to finish third when debuting in a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight at Churchill Downs last month.

That effort yielded a respectable 81 Brisnet Speed rating. Golden Gamble is sticking to the same conditions for her second start and should have every chance to shine. McPeek wins at a 15% rate with second-time starters, and at an 18% rate with horses running long for the second time, so how about betting Golden Gamble on top of an exacta using logical rivals #3 Girl Math (2-1) and #4 Seraphia (3-1) for second place? A $35 exacta, 7 with 3,4, will cost $70 with a chance to pay much more.

Good luck!