Betting a cold trifecta in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth

The key to handicapping Saturday’s King George VI and Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Ascot in England is theoretically complicated—in order to make a meaningful profit, we’ll have to predict the exact order of finish without a miss.

Normally such a task would be astronomically difficult; in an eight-horse field, there are 40,320 possible outcomes. But predicting the order of finish for the King George—a “Win and You’re In” qualifier for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1)—figures to be a decidedly simpler task. Just four horses will face the starter, allotting only 24 possible outcomes. And on paper, there’s a clear pecking order among the four runners.

The overwhelming favorite is the superstar mare #4 Enable, a two-time winner of the prestigious Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1). A 10-time Grade/Group 1 winner racing for the high-profile team of trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori, Enable has won two previous editions of the King George while compiling a 10-for-11 record racing 1 1/2 miles, with her lone defeat being a runner-up effort over very soft ground in the 2019 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.

Some folks might view Enable as vulnerable since she kicked off 2020 with a loss in the Eclipse (G1) at Sandown, but Enable wasn’t badly beaten by any means while racing over a 1 1/4-mile trip shorter than her best. She wasn’t fully fit for her first start of the season, yet showed tenacity to rally and edge #2 Japan for the runner-up spot, even though Japan had the benefit of a prep run under his belt.

Japan himself is a multiple Group 1 winner who should appreciate stretching back out over 1 1/2 miles, but the talented son of Galileo has lost to Enable in both of their meetings and seems destined to settle for the runner-up spot in the King George. #1 Anthony Van Dyck has gone winless since claiming the 2019 Epsom Derby (G1), but has cracked the trifecta in four Group 1 prizes since then and should out-kick 2019 Irish Derby (G1) winner #3 Sovereign in the battle for third place.

Trifecta wagering (but not superfecta wagering) will be offered on the King George, so we’ll call the order of finish as Enable/Japan/Anthony Van Dyck and bet accordingly:

• $30 Trifecta: 4 with 2 with 1

Good luck!