Betting Against Arabian Knight in the Breeders’ Cup Classic

Zedan Racing Stables’ #12 Arabian Knight (3-1) has been installed as the morning-line choice for Saturday’s $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Santa Anita. The once-beaten son of Uncle Mo was last seen posting a neck victory in the Pacific Classic S. (G1) at Del Mar on Sept. 2.

Trained by Bob Baffert, the ultra-talented sophomore possesses huge early speed and has a lot of room to grow with just four lifetime races under his belt. The $2.3 million juvenile purchase has also been training in excellent fashion of late with six strong moves on the course in advance of his Santa Anita bow. He will be formidable with another move forward beneath Flavien Prat.

There are a few reasons to side against the colt, however, including the fact that the bay has never passed another horse in a race. If he doesn’t break perfectly on Saturday, the three-year-old could find himself in unfamiliar territory on the back side.

Japanese star #8 Ushba Tesoro (4-1) has won seven of his eight career tries on the dirt with six wins in succession dating back to October of 2022. The Orfevre six-year-old was a stunning Dubai World Cup (G1) winner in March, and he readied for his first run at Santa Anita with a facile victory at Funabashi.

Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner #6 Saudi Crown (12-1) is the inside pace of the race and could get very brave if he clears in the early going of the feature. The Always Dreaming three-year-old is two noses shy of being unbeaten from five lifetime performances, and his improving Brisnet speed numbers are a positive going into the toughest assignment of his lifetime.

Whitney (G1) romper #3 White Abarrio (4-1) is in the best form of his life, and #2 Zandon (12-1) always runs well while facing the best horses in training on most occasions.

For those looking to take a swing for the fences, #10 Dreamlike (30-1) has always hinted at being a real good one, and he comes off a fine runner-up showing to the aforementioned Saudi Crown with blinkers removed last time out. The expensive Gun Runner colt is not especially consistent, but improvement off of his latest effort puts him in the mix to grab a share at a huge number beneath Jose Ortiz.

Analysis

Arabian Knight seems like a legitimate favorite to me, but his task is a tall one after drawing wide. His margin for error is small, in my opinion.

For those seeking to upend the Baffert pupil, Ushba Tesoro is a very logical alternative from off the pace, while Saudi Crown has a chance to lead this field at every call.

Wager Against Arabian Knight

$1 trifecta: 6,8 with 2,3,6,8,10 with all ($80)

Good Luck!