Betting on Baffert in the Arkansas Derby(s)

On Saturday at Oaklawn Park, 22 talented 3-year-old Thoroughbreds will vie for Kentucky Derby qualification points in two divisions of the 1 1/8-mile, $500,000 Arkansas Derby (G1).

With 11 horses in each division, there are plenty of options for handicappers to consider. Let’s tackle the exotic wagers and see if we can come up with a couple winning plays.

Race 9: Arkansas Derby (G1), Division 1

This is the easier of the two Arkansas Derby divisions, so #1 Charlatan should be tough to beat for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert. A pure frontrunner, Charlatan is undefeated in two starts. He has dominated maiden and allowance races at Santa Anita and put up eye-catching 101 and 105 Brisnet Speed ratings.

The rail draw is a slight concern, but there isn’t much speed in the first division of the Arkansas Derby. So long as Charlatan breaks alertly under hot jockey Martin Garcia, he should lead all the way and keep his undefeated record intact.

We’ll key him on top in the trifecta and use Grade 1-placed #4 Gouverneur Morris, speedy Oaklawn allowance winner #6 Shooters Shoot, and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) runner-up #8 Anneau d’Or underneath.

$5 trifecta: 1 with 4,6,8 with 4,6,8 ($30)

Race 11: Arkansas Derby (G1), Division 2

Baffert could sweep both halves of the Arkansas Derby, if #5 Nadal lives up to expectations in the tougher second division.

An undefeated son of Blame, Nadal has shown remarkable speed and resilience to survive pace duels in the San Vicente (G2) and Rebel (G2). He won both races by narrow margins, despite every reason to falter.

Nadal could face another fast pace in the Arkansas Derby, but he is drawn outside two of his three pace rivals, which sets up the potential for a more relaxed trip. He has also been training up a storm in preparation for his Grade 1 debut, so we’ll bank on Baffert landing a double and key Nadal on top of our tickets.

Underneath, Southwest (G3) winner #7 Silver Prospector and Louisiana Derby (G2) victor #11 Wells Bayou are obvious candidates for inclusion, along with runaway Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner #4 King Guillermo. But if you’re looking for a longshot to play, why not consider #9 Taishan?

A dominant allowance winner at Oaklawn two starts back, Taishan ran deceptively well in the April 11 Oaklawn S., over the same track and distance as the Arkansas Derby. After he made a premature rally into a hot pace, Taishan fought on gamely to finish third, behind a pair of deep closers. If he times his pounce better Saturday, Taishan can finish on the board at a big price.

$2.50 trifecta: 5 with 4,7,9,11 with 4,7,9,11 ($30)

Good luck!