Betting on underdogs: When and how to spot profitable longshots

Spotting profitable longshots in horse racing is easier said than done. But a few handicapping guidelines can help you identify underdogs worth betting.

When to search for profitable longshots

You’ll have the best chance to cash tickets on longshots if one or both of the following conditions are true:

1. The favorite looks vulnerable

Maybe the betting favorite is switching from turf to dirt, or exiting a race in which they received a perfect pace setup. If you can make a case why the favorite is vulnerable to regression, you’ll have a better chance of picking an upset winner.

2. None of the entrants are particularly fast

If the top three betting choices tower over a field in terms of accomplishments and Brisnet Speed ratings, it’s unlikely a longshot will spring a surprise. However, if none of the entrants in a race have run particularly fast, a longshot won’t need much improvement to pull off the upset.

Consider the par winning Brisnet Speed rating for the race conditions. If none of the entrants have run within five or six points of the par winning number, you may be looking at a subpar field ripe for a longshot winner.

How to spot profitable longshots

If an upset appears likely, here are strategies for spotting live longshots:

1. Look for reasons why a longshot might improve

It’s helpful to look for clear-cut reasons why a longshot might improve. Maybe they’re trying turf for the first time and have a pedigree geared toward grass success. Maybe they’re adding Lasix or racing as a gelding for the first time. Maybe they’re dropping down sharply in class, stretching out from a sprint to a route, or switching to a different trainer. Any of these changes can open the door for significant improvement.

2. Consider whether a favorable race setup is likely

Sometimes, a favorable race setup is all a longshot needs to prevail. A late runner exiting a series of races with slow early pace fractions may step up and win if they encounter a fast pace. Or a horse compromised by a strong track bias may rebound over a fair track. If race dynamics have muddied a longshot’s recent form, and they’re about to encounter more favorable circumstances, they may be worth betting.

Remember these guidelines when handicapping horse races, and you’ll be well on your way to spotting profitable longshots.