Betting the Mucho Macho Man Stakes at Gulfstream Park

Could handicapping Saturday’s $100,000 Mucho Macho Man S. be as simple as betting the most accomplished runners in the field?

Held over a mile at Gulfstream Park, the Mucho Macho Man isn’t technically a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race, though in practice the race still serves as an early stepping stone toward the first Saturday in May. The Mucho Macho Man and its predecessor, the Gulfstream Park Derby, have produced five Kentucky Derby starters since 2012, including 2019 Derby runner-up Code of Honor.

I’m recounting this bit of history to show how the Mucho Macho Man is typically a tougher race than its ungraded stakes status implies. So perhaps on Saturday, we should forego creative handicapping and instead favor the field’s two established graded stakes winners: #5 Mutasaabeq (5-2) and #7 Pickin’ Time (3-1).

A quick review of their credentials demonstrates why they’ll be formidable in the Mucho Macho Man.

#5 Mutasaabeq

A son of two-time leading sire Into Mischief, Mutasaabeq has shown talent on both dirt and turf. A flashy debut winner over the Saratoga main track, Mutasaabeq went on to finish third in the Hopeful (G1) before switching to turf for the Bourbon (G2) at Keeneland, which he nabbed with an eye-catching rally from last place.

Mutasaabeq failed to fire when facing international competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1), but he continues to train forwardly under the care of Todd Pletcher, who has gone 18-for-56 (32%) to start the Gulfstream meet. Returning to dirt and dropping in class can help Mutasaabeq rebound.

#7 Pickin’ Time

If you draw a line through Pickin’ Time’s disappointing effort in the 1 1/8-mile Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct, where he finished fourth over a sloppy track, his form looks solid. A two-time stakes winner, Pickin’ Time handled a one-turn mile just fine in the Nashua (G3) over dry footing at Aqueduct, rallying to defeat future Remsen runner-up Ten for Ten by 2 1/4 lengths.

Like the Nashua, the Mucho Macho Man is held over a one-turn mile, so the configuration on Saturday should suit Pickin’ Time just fine. With clear skies in the forecast, Pickin’ Time should also receive the fast track he needs to thrive.

Conclusions

Mutasaabeq and Pickin’ Time bring the best resumes into the Mucho Macho Man, and one or the other should prevail. We’ll play them both on top of a trifecta while adding eye-catching maiden winner #3 Easy Time (12-1) and Juvenile Turf S. winner #10 Big Thorn (5-1) underneath.

$2.50 trifecta: 5,7 with 3,5,7,10 with 3,5,7,10 ($30)

Good luck!