Betting the Twilight Derby

A total of seven sophomores will vie in Saturday’s $200,000 Twilight Derby (G2) at Santa Anita. The nine-furlong turf test lacks a standout in what appears to be a very well-matched field in the feature. 

Twilight Derby Wagers

• $25 win #6 Rothschild ($25)
• $5 exacta box 1-6 ($10)
• 50-cent trifecta key 6 with 1,2,4,7 ($6)

#6 Rothschild (9-2) has put in a pair of solid runs in 2024 for conditioner Tim Yakteen and gets top billing in the contest. The sophomore ran on the dirt in his first four assignments as a juvenile before moving to the lawn in his season finale, where he missed by a head in a Grade 3 event at Del Mar. 

The $700,000 yearling purchase commenced his three-year-old campaign at Del Mar in the Oceanside S., and the son of Uncle Mo made a big middle move to take the lead in early stretch before eventually checking in third in a race that he needed off the shelf. He ventured to Kentucky Downs to contest the lucrative Nashville Derby in his second try as a sophomore and secured another third-place result. 

Rothschild has surely elevated his game since moving to the green, and he seems poised to take another step forward while making his third appearance of the year. The bay will benefit from the cutback from 1 5/16 miles, and his recent five-furlong morning drill tells me that he will be ready to fire on Saturday with Kaz Kimura in the controls. 

The lightly raced #1 Atitlan (7-2), who finished third in the Del Mar Derby (G2) in his graded stakes debut most recently, has a lot of upside for conditioner John Shirreffs. By The Factor, the Kentucky-bred has yet to perform on this course, but his trio of grassy tries at Del Mar were solid at the very least, and he will be in with a chance late if he improves with the change of venue under the guidance of solid turf pilot Hector Berrios. I envision the colt to track the moderate early pace while saving ground every step of the way. 

Real Good Deal S. victor #2 Curlin’s Kaos (5-1), four-time stakes hero #4 Stay Hot (3-1), and Augustin homebred #7 Twirling Point (6-1) each has top-three appeal for the vertical exotics.