Betting trifectas in the Withers Stakes

Although the $250,000 Withers S. (G3) dates back to 1874, its history as a Road to the Kentucky Derby prep race is considerably shorter.

The 1 1/8-mile race is set to be run Saturday at Aqueduct, but its placement in early February is a recent change instituted in 2012. The nine renewals since have been largely dominated by local runners with experience over the Aqueduct main track, but that is to be expected — not many out-of-state shippers make the trip to Aqueduct during the dead of winter.

So does that mean we should favor local runners in the 2021 Withers? Not necessarily.

There are some talented contenders to choose from. #3 Capo Kane dominated last month’s one-mile Jerome S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, while #5 Risk Taking was a flashy maiden winner racing 1 1/8 miles for trainer Chad Brown.

But the 2021 Withers also contains a formidable runner from Florida — #7 Donegal Bay. He is not the fastest horse in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings, but I suspect the bay gelding can outrun expectations.

Check out the credentials Donegal Bay brings to the table:

• Donegal Bay is a son of champion two-year-old and successful stallion Uncle Mo, the sire of 2016 Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist. Donegal Bay was foaled from a mare by Belmont Stakes (G1) winner Empire Maker, so the 1 1/8-mile distance of the Withers shouldn’t be an issue.
• Donegal Bay was sharp in a one-mile maiden race Dec. 12 at Gulfstream Park. After he sprinted to the lead, through solid splits of :23.60, :46.52, and 1:10.99, he kicked clear down the stretch to win by 4 1/4 lengths. Runner-up Simovitch flattered Donegal Bay’s performance when he returned to win his next start.

• Donegal Bay is trained by Todd Pletcher, a 28% winner at Aqueduct this winter. Pletcher has won the Withers three times and twice since the 2012 reconfiguration.
• Donegal Bay has been training forwardly at Palm Beach Downs, where he cranked out a pair of bullet workouts since the middle of January.
• Donegal Bay will be ridden by jockey Kendrick Carmouche, a 24% winner at Aqueduct.

For all these reasons, I’m keen to play Donegal Bay on top in the trifecta, aiming for a big payday. Underneath, we’ll emphasize Capo Kane and Risk Taking.

$5 trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($10)
$2 trifecta: 7 with 3,5 with 1,2,6 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 7 with 2,6 with 3,5 ($8)
Total: $30

Good luck!