Betting with, and against, City of Troy in Breeders’ Cup Classic

Anticipation runs high for City of Troy’s appearance in Saturday’s $7 million Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) at Del Mar.

Installed as the 5-2 morning-line favorite, the Irish-based colt was named European champion after a smashing juvenile campaign, and City of Troy has parlayed his speed and stamina into a trio of impressive Group 1 wins this year.

Connections are confident in the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify making a seamless transition to dirt, and City of Troy will look to prove his versatility against 13 challengers in the Classic. The turf superstar remains an imposing presence, but some bettors will take a stand against City of Troy at a short price in his first dirt attempt.

Let’s examine the case for both sides.

With City of Troy - Wagers

• $10 exacta 3 over 2,7,9,13 ($40)
• $1 trifecta 3 with 2,7,9,13 with 2,7,9,10,11,13 ($20)

Against City of Troy - Wagers

• $2 exacta box 2,7,9,13 ($24)
• $1 trifecta 9,13 with 2,7,9,13 with 2,3,7,9,10,11,13 ($30)

With City of Troy - Analysis

#3 City of Troy can make his own trip if necessary, rallying spectacularly to win the English Derby (G1) by open lengths earlier this season and establishing a course record leading all the way in his final tune-up, the Aug. 21 Juddmonte International (G1), and his tactical ability should allow Ryan Moore to orchestrate an up-close trip just off the early leaders.

If he settles into a comfortable trip, the classy three-year-old owns the turn of foot to prove best in the Classic.

His top-ranked American rival, #9 Fierceness (3-1), who possesses good speed and exits a terrific win in the Travers (G1) will be used underneath in exotics. #2 Highland Falls (20-1) and #13 Newgate (20-1), Grade 1-winning older horses at the 1 1/4-mile Classic distance this year, will offer more value. And late-running #7 Ushba Tesoro (12-1), an accomplished veteran who has made a favorable impression since arriving at Del Mar, is part of the mix. A pair of dedicated closers, #10 Tapit Trice (30-1) and #11 Sierra Leone (12-1), will be added to the third slot in the trifecta.

Against City of Troy - Analysis

Playing against short-priced horses trying something new is considered a wise betting strategy, and City of Troy faces a tricky pace scenario from an inside post in the Classic. 

An abundance of speed appears is entered toward the outside in the full starting gate, with Fierceness, #12 Arthur’s Ride, and #14 Next expected to seek a forward position at the break, and early projections are no given for City of Troy, who has been prominently positioned in long-distance European turf races. 

Dirt racing will be a new element and City of Troy must avoid getting caught too far back from the inside, taking kickback for the first time as the field enters the first turn. Let’s take a stand against City of Troy receiving the necessary trip to win at short odds.

Fierceness and Newgate will be our key horses for the trifecta part-wheel outlined above.