Betting With, and Against, Hit Show in the Louisiana Stakes

A good group of 10 handicap runners will go postward in Saturday’s $175,000 Louisiana S. (G3) at Fair Grounds. Morning-line choice #1 Hit Show (5-2) reeled off a trio of graded stakes wins in succession in 2024 prior to crossing the line in third, only to be placed fifth, in the deep Clark S. (G2) at Churchill Downs in his seasonal finale. 

Hit Show – With

• $4 trifecta key 1 with 5,7,8 ($24)
• $1 trifecta 1 with 5,7,8 with all ($24)

Hit Show – Against

• 50-cent trifecta 5,8 with 1,5,7,8 with all ($24)
• 10-cent superfecta 5,8 with 1,5,7,8 with 1,5,7,8 with all ($16.80)

Trained by Brad Cox, the five-year-old Kentucky-bred is well drawn on the rail for the contest and comes in with a pair of bullet morning moves at Payson Park, signaling that he will be ready to put his best foot forward in this spot. The Candy Ride gray has the tactical speed to stay in range early while saving ground from the fence throughout under Florent Geroux. 

The field has numerous talented runners that merit respect, as the deserving favorite is far from a sure thing in my opinion. #5 Skinner (9-2) has long flashed potential and is seemingly putting it all together in advance of his first run for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The Curlin five-year-old rallied for an impressive score in the Native Diver S. (G3) at Del Mar in November, and the bay still has additional room for improvement while making just his third appearance since 2023. Jose Ortiz will pilot the talented late runner. 

#8 Track Phantom (8-1) captured the Lecomte S. (G3) on the course last season and could peak in his third run off the bench for Asmussen. The Quality Road four-year-old dueled with the excellent Saudi Crown in the Tenacious S. before giving way in the stretch when ultimately fourth, and I expect him to receive a much more reasonable pace scenario with which to deal with on this day. Brian Hernandez, Jr. will be in the stirrups for the initial time and the price is generous. 

#7 Velocitor (15-1) is a sneaky exotics contender in the group who wouldn’t be a massive surprise to me. The Gary Scherer pupil showed little on the oval in the Tenacious S. most recently, but he did have smart form leading up to that and will move forward in this offering. He is three-for-five at the distance and will get the jump on the late runners with David Cohen signed on.