Betting With, and Against, Mansa Musa, in the Franklin-Simpson Stakes

An overflow field of 16 sophomores has been entered to run 6 1/2 panels at Kentucky Downs in the $2 million Franklin-Simpson S. (G1) on Saturday. The slight morning-line choice is the Bill Mott-trained #11 Mansa Musa (4-1). 

Mansa Musa – With

• $2 trifecta key 11 with 2,4,7,8 ($24)
• $1 trifecta 11 with 2,4,7,8 with all ($24)

Mansa Musa – Against

• $2 exacta box 2,4,7,8 ($24)
• 50-cent trifecta 2,4,7,8 with 2,4,7,8,11 with 2,4,7,8,11 ($24)

By Ten Sovereigns, the Irish-bred didn’t perform all that well in the Mahony S. at Saratoga over a good turf surface most recently, but he was going well prior to that and will get a pass for that subpar performance. 

The bay colt has been a bit more involved in his assignments since the addition of blinkers a few starts back, and he will improve Saturday with Junior Alvarado in the silks. He is not the strongest favorite but is undoubtedly a classy one, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for backing him on top in the dash. 

I have a lot of interest in #8 Please Advise (8-1) for multiple reasons. This George Weaver pupil was a solid third in his lone prior run on a unique course, he cuts back in distance following a fourth in the Hall of Fame S. (G2) at Saratoga, and the son of Palace Malice also gets Flavien Prat to ride. The bay does his best work as a late-running sprinter on the green and could surprise at a fair number in a field with a lot of pace. 

#4 Yellow Card (15-1) is a massive price for a colt who went postward at odds of 7-2 at Saratoga last time out for trainer Mike McCarthy. The Lost Treasure colt endured a tough trip in the Mahony S. in preparation for this, but he has worked well in the interim and also picks up John Velazquez. I envision the Kentucky-bred to be forwardly placed to some extent early on. 

#2 Evade (12-1) has knocked heads with some fine dashers in Europe over the last two seasons and could be any kind while racing as a gelding for the initial time in his U.S. debut. Now with Mike Maker, the son of Wootton Bassett has excellent value with Jaime Torres in the controls. 

The fleet #7 Joe Shiesty (8-1) can be dangerous as the expected pace of the race. The Eric Foster trainee has a lot of ability and will be clear in the early stages beneath Abel Cedillo.