Betting With, and Against, Pay Billy in the Federico Tesio Stakes

A well-matched field of 10 sophomores will run 1 1/8 miles on the Laurel Park main strip in Saturday’s $150,000 Federico Tesio S. The morning-line choice is the Michael Gorham-trained #9 Pay Billy (5-2), who comes off a fine victory in the Private Terms S. on the surface last time out. By Improbable, the bay wasn’t all that impressive in the first trio of races in his lifetime but has really turned the corner since. 

Pay Billy – With

• $2 superfecta 9 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7 with 1,5,6,7 ($24)
• 50-cent superfecta 9 with 1,5 with 1,5,6,7 with all ($21)

Pay Billy – Against

• $1 trifecta 1,5 with 1,5,6,7,9 with 1,5,6,7,9 ($24)
• 20-cent superfecta 1,5 with 1,5,9 with 1,5,6,7,9 with all ($16.80)

Pay Billy graduated in December, toppled allowance foes in January, and preceded his initial stakes win with a nose defeat in the Miracle Wood S. two prior. The Kentucky-bred has very good tactical speed and is adept at running from on the lead, or just off the early pace. He has posted two solid morning drills in preparation for this tilt and retains the services of Raul Mena. 

The unbeaten #5 Kentucky Outlaw (8-1) is the wildcard in the heat without question. By Outwork, the colt has dusted a pair of fields in succession at Parx and earned a race-best 102 Brisnet Speed rating in his route debut most recently. Kentucky-bred three-year-old takes an obvious class hike today, but he appears to be the pace of the race and could get brave if left alone on the front end beneath Silvestre Gonzalez. 

#1 Surfside Moon (3-1) was more than six lengths clear of his nearest pursuer when second in the Withers S. last out for trainer James Lawrence. The Malibu Moon colt ran the best race of his career in that endeavor, and if he can repeat that performance from the rail, then Keystone State-bred will be a menacing figure late beneath Mychel Sanchez. 

#6 Studlydoright (4-1) and #7 Sacred Thunder (5-1) both have obvious exotics appeal and will be included in my vertical plays, but I don’t love the chances of either of the contenders to win the race. The former has failed to hit the board in four races in a row, while the latter is consistent but winless since November. 

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