Betting With, and Against, Shotgun Hottie in the Locust Grove Stakes

A total of eight fillies and mares will vie in Saturday’s $400,000 Locust Grove S. (G2) on the Churchill Downs main surface. The 1 1/16-mile affair is led by #7 Shotgun Hottie (2-1), who is a deserving betting favorite in the event. Trained by Cherie DeVaux, it took the Gun Runner mare a few starts this year to regain her 2023 form, but the five-year-old is going really well right now and will be a prime player with something resembling her top performance.

Shotgun Hottie – With

• $1.50 superfecta 7 with 1,3,4 with 1,3,4 with all ($45)

Shotgun Hottie – Against

• 50-cent superfecta 1,3,4 with 1,3,4,7 with 1,3,4,7 with all ($45)

Shotgun Hottie owns four wins at the distance, she has very good positional speed, and her last effort beneath the Twin Spires resulted in a fine runner-up effort in the Fleur de Lis (G2) on June 29, as well. In her latest venture, the bay was second to the peaking Raging Sea in the Shuvee (G2) at Saratoga. Jose Ortiz inherits the mount atop the formidable miss. 

For those looking for better value in the talented cast, #3 Taxed (9-2) might be the top alternative to the favorite for conditioner Randy Morse. The Grade 2 heroine has run very well in her pair of most recent assignments on this surface, with a big allowance win and a close third in the Fleur de Lis (G2) to her credit, and she has improved her Brisnet Speed figure in three straight tilts in succession, as well. Collected four-year-old has been training at this venue since May and I envision her taking another step forward on Saturday beneath Brian Hernandez Jr. 

#1 Musical Mischief (8-1) has shown marked improvement in 2024 while stringing together four solid races in a row for trainer Mike McCarthy. Into Mischief filly has picked up two of her three career wins in Louisville, she has good early speed, and the four-year-old also has the cozy rail slot. She makes sense to me with Edgar Morales in the stirrups. 

#4 Loved (5-1) has been brought along slowly by Brendan Walsh and comes off her initial stakes triumph. Godolphin homebred was a daylight allowance winner last campaign in her lone prior assignment at this locale, and I feel that the Medaglia d’Oro mare is sitting on a big run. She will be forwardly placed throughout with Tyler Gaffalione in the silks.