Betting With, and Against, Smash Ticket in the Raven Run Stakes

A talented, and well-matched, field of nine three-year-old fillies will go postward in Saturday’s $350,000 Raven Run S. (G2) at Keeneland. The seven-furlong dirt tilt is led by morning-line favorite #2 Smash Ticket (5-2) for conditioner Rob Atras.

By Midnight Lute, the sophomore lass displayed good ability as a two-year-old when winning second time out prior to recording a third-place result in the Sorrento S. (G2) at Del Mar to conclude 2021. The dark bay returned in May at Lone Star with blinkers off for the initial time, responding to the equipment change with an 11-length allowance score, and she was subsequently moved to Atras.

A victory at Saratoga came next followed by a 6 1/4-length triumph in the Weather Vane S. at Pimlico. She has posted lifetime-best Brisnet Speed figures of 100 and 102 since the barn change, and she appears to be sitting on another top effort after posting a strong half-mile breeze at Belmont last weekend. Kendrick Carmouche, who has been in the irons for her last two victories, will be in the stirrups once again.

For those searching for value in the deep affair, #4 Last Leaf (12-1) is worth a long look. The Not This Time filly had a three-race win streak snapped when fourth in the Dogwood S. (G3) at Churchill Downs in her first for Eddie Kenneally, but she will improve on this occasion with a cutback in distance, especially if she runs to her sizzling four-furlong bullet drill one week ago.

The Monarch Stables color bearer possesses a huge turn of foot and is a two-time heroine at the distance. She will be formidable late for jockey Martin Garcia if the pace backs up in the stretch.

David Donk’s #5 Fingal’s Cave (4-1) is unbeaten from four lifetime races in the Empire State and makes her graded debut in this tough spot. By Carpe Diem, the talented filly has won from both on or off the pace, and she has proven her class from distances ranging from six panels to 1 1/8 miles.

The New York-bred bay comes in fresh with some solid morning drills in advance of Saturday, and it seems logical to include her in the exotics with Joel Rosario inheriting the mount atop the bay.

Smash Ticket – With

• $20 exacta: 2 with 4, 5 ($40)
• $1 superfecta: 2 with 4, 5 with 4, 5 with all ($12)
• $1 superfecta: 2 with 4, 5 with all with 4, 5 ($12)

Smash Ticket – Against

• $15 win and place: #4 Last Leaf ($30)
• $1 trifecta: 4, 5 with 2, 4, 5 with all ($28)