Breeders' Cup International Scouting Report: Ubettabelieveit

Here is a sample profile of Jasper Great from the Brisnet.com Breeders' Cup International Scouting Report, a total of 46 pages of analysis spanning Friday and Saturday. The International Scouting Report is available on its own or as part of the Breeders' Cup handicapping package. 

A much finer prospect for the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint than his 40-1 upset of the Flying Childers (G2) implies, Ubettabelieveit will get the pace set-up he craves. The question is whether he can capitalize on it amid the unfamiliar circumstances of hurtling around a turn.

By prolific sire Kodiac – who has several chances Friday including Campanelle (Juvenile Fillies Turf) – Ubettabelieveit is the fourth stakes winner produced by the Mujadil mare Ladylishandra after Tropical Paradise, who captured the 2010 Supreme (G3) and Oak Tree (G3) over 7 furlongs at Goodwood; Italian Group 3-winning sprint veteran Harlem Shake; and multiple Group 3-placed Shenanigans, whose stakes score came in last year’s 1 1/4-mile Rothesay at Ayr.

Ubettabelieveit was listed as bringing €35,000 as a Goffs November weanling, but breeder Ringfort Stud was the consignor when he sold for 50,000 guineas as a Tattersalls October yearling. His buyers, Church Farm & Horse Park Stud, planned to re-offer him as a 2-year-old in training. Cataloged for the Goffs Arqana breeze-up July 1, he was withdrawn. The colt had already been sold privately, and won, before his date in the ring.

Based in North Yorkshire with Nigel Tinkler, Ubettabelieveit went to Doncaster for his first two starts. He was an encouraging fourth in a June 13 novice, reaching contention before tiring, and took a leap forward in his June 30 follow-up. Ubettabelieveit lengthened stride to finish fastest, pulling away in a very pleasing performance.

His rise continued in the July 16 National at Sandown. While it wasn’t the deepest renewal in the COVID-scrambled landscape, Ubettabelieveit traveled like miles the best horse and struck the front sooner than ideal. No one else could keep giving him a tow into the race, so he bounded clear.

Ubettabelieveit was eased next time as a 9-1 shot in the Gimcrack (G2) at York, but the race was a toss-out for a few reasons. It was his first try at 6 furlongs, he over-raced early, and Tinkler said that the ground (rain-affected and loose) exacerbated the problem. Moreover, the Gimcrack was not the original idea. The 5-furlong Roses, also during the Ebor meeting, had been mentioned, and Tinkler ended up winning that with Acklam Express.

Bettors judged Ubettabelieveit too harshly for that, and overlooked the fact he was returning to the scene of his smashing novice score in the 5-furlong Flying Childers. Traveling much more contentedly just behind the pace, he knifed between foes to stun Sacred by a short head.

His beaten rivals were familiar faces in the juvenile sprint division. Sacred had failed narrowly in the Queen Mary (G2) and Lowther (G2) as well. Flying Childers third Measure of Magic also had form with Miss Amulet, while the fourth Burning Cash has since placed third in the Cornwallis (G3) to another Flying Childers alum, Winter Power. Other also-rans include Molecomb (G3) scorer Steel Bull, Prix Robert Papin (G2) winner Ventura Tormenta, and Frenetic.

Tinkler didn’t seriously entertain the Prix de l’Abbaye (G1) on Arc Day, just because of the likelihood of soft going in Paris. Otherwise it could have come into the equation, considering the loads of weight a 2-year-old receives versus elders.

Ubettabelieveit requires pace to help him settle and make a run, as Tinkler explains. He’ll get that in spades here, but given the task, his trainer prefers to be realistic rather than bullish.

“If we win, we will be chuffed,” Tinkler told Marcus Townend of Daily Mail, “and if we finish in the first four we will still be doing cartwheels.”