Breeders’ Cup Juvenile: 6 trends for expert betting

The Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar is expected to draw a strong field packed with talented two-year-olds.

Planning to bet the race, but not sure which horses(s) to back? These six trends for expert betting can help you narrow down the contenders:

1. Grade 1 experience is important

Each of the last 10 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners prepped in a Grade 1 race. Five winners came out of the American Pharoah (G1), while three utilized the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) and two came via the Champagne (G1).

2. Baffert and Pletcher routinely win

Hall of Fame trainers Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are known for their prowess conditioning top-tier two-year-olds, and they regularly win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Baffert has won the race five times since 2002, while Pletcher boasts four wins since 2010, including the last two editions with Forte (2022) and Fierceness (2023).

3. Sons of Grade 1-winning router racers are most likely to shine

The last 14 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winners have been sired by stallions who won at the Grade 1 level over 1 1/16 miles or farther. Sons of sprinters and sons of stallions who weren’t Grade 1-caliber rarely take first prize in the Juvenile.

4. Favorites run below expectations

Favorites have struggled in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, winning only five of the last 25 editions. That’s a 20% win rate lower than typical for favorites in Thoroughbred horse racing.

5. Last-out winners have a strong success rate

While it’s not impossible for horses who lost their final prep race to bounce back and win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, 10 of the last 14 winners (71%) entered off a victory, so horses in winning form have the best chance to succeed in the Juvenile.

6. Overseas challengers have been struggling

Once in a while, a horse based overseas manages to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. But the last to do so was Vale of York over a synthetic track at Santa Anita in 2009, and since then, horses exiting races outside the U.S. have gone 0-for-10 in the Juvenile, with none recording top-three finishes.