Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf: 5 trends for expert betting

Wondering which horse(s) to bet in the Nov. 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) at Del Mar? You’ve come to the right place.

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is a relatively young Breeders’ Cup race, but it’s already produced several recurring trends that handicappers can utilize to expertly bet the race. Here are five to keep in mind:

1. North American fillies are dominant

Horses from Europe generally excel in grass races at the Breeders’ Cup, but the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf is an exception. Fillies based in North American have won 13 out of 16 editions, including nine of the last 10.

2. Chad Brown is the winningest trainer

Four-time Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown won the inaugural Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in 2008 and has picked up five more wins since 2014. His six overall wins are spectacular given that no other trainer has won the race more than once.

3. Short-priced runners are on a roll

Early on, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf was an unpredictable race; the first six favorites fell to defeat while the winners started at odds between 6-1 and 13-1. But an opposite trend has emerged within the last decade. Four of the last 10 favorites (40%) have visited the winner’s circle, and five other winners started at single-digit odds.

4. Tactical speed is helpful

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf almost always features a full field of 14 starters, so having the tactical speed to stay close to the pace (and out of traffic trouble) is beneficial. No fewer than 10 out of 16 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winners (62%) were racing in the top five after the opening half-mile, including five (31%) who were positioned first or second.

5. Outside posts aren’t disadvantageous

Some bettors may hesitate to play Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies entrants who are drawn in outside posts, figuring they’ll receive wide trips. But guess what? Fillies drawn in posts 10-14 have comprised 34% of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf starters, and they’ve won six editions (37%), suggesting they aren’t disadvantaged by their wide draws.