Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf: 5 trends for expert betting

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) annually pits the best two-year-old grass milers in North America against formidable international challengers.

The 2024 edition on Nov. 1 at Del Mar may prove to be especially competitive. The Breeders’ Cup website lists horses from five countries (the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and Japan) among the possible starters.

Wondering which horses have the best chance to win? We’ve got you covered with five Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf trends for expert betting:

1. Overseas raiders are tough to beat

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf has been contested 17 times, and on 12 occasions the first horse across the finish line prepped overseas, leaving only five wins for horses exiting races in North America.

(Note: One overseas winner competed for purse money only and was a non-starter for betting purposes. The winner for betting purposes was a U.S.-based horse who crossed the finish line in second place.)

2. O’Brien and Appleby are the dominant trainers

No trainer has won more editions of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf than Aidan O’Brien, who has saddled six winners from 23 starters, including the last two winners in a row (Victoria Road, 2022, and Unquestionable, 2023). But Charlie Appleby has compiled an even higher win percentage, winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf three times from only five starters.

3. Ryan Moore is the winningest jockey

It’s not uncommon for Aidan O’Brien to saddle multiple horses in a single edition of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. When this happens, bet the horse ridden by Ryan Moore. All six of O’Brien’s Juvenile Turf winners were guided by Moore, making the internationally acclaimed jockey the most successful rider in the history of the Juvenile Turf.

4. Favorites rarely visit the winner’s circle

Favorites have largely struggled to shine in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, going 3-for-17. The resulting 18% win rate is much lower than usual for favorites in Thoroughbred horse racing. 

5. Last-out winners have a strong success rate

Early on, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf was a race in which horses who lost their final prep race found great success. But that has changed in recent years. Seven of the last nine Juvenile Turf winners entered off a victory.