Breeders’ Cup Takeaways from Keeneland October 6-8

Opening weekend at Keeneland was a big one, with eight graded races held at the Lexington, Kentucky venue. I like a few that might be interesting contenders at Del Mar next month.    

Shadwell Turf Mile (G1):

SUEDOIS made his U. S. debut a memorable one, wearing down early leader Heart to Heart late to pull off a minor upset. Six-year-old import looked good rallying into a moderate pace but will need to raise his level next time to challenge World Approval and his fellow European invaders, many of which are more highly regarded.

HEART TO HEART has been a model of consistency while knocking heads with some of the division’s best and Brian Lynch trainee should be all set for an optimal performance making a third run off the layoff in the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1). He may not be able to carry his speed all the way but I will use the son of English Channel in some exotic slots.

Breeders’ Futurity (G1):

We might have found the second-choice to division leader Bolt d’Oro in FREE DROP BILLY, who won as pleased under Robby Albarado. Dale Romans trainee has compiled a fine two-year-old season with this win and a pair of second-place finishes versus graded rivals and the son of Union Rags looks likely to improve going longer. Free Drop Billy still appears many lengths behind ‘Bolt but will have a chance to capitalize if that one falters in the Juvenile (G1).

I don’t expect to see any others factor at Del Mar.

Alcibiades (G1):

HEAVENLY LOVE served notice she will be a lass to be reckoned with in the Juvenile Fillies (G1). After breaking her maiden in a turf sprint, the daughter of Malibu Moon pressed the early tempo and dominated in the lane of her two-turn debut, winning with a lot left under the wire. Mark Casse pupil is out of a very nice mare and is bred to run long for sure, making her a viable contender at Del Mar with expected improvement, and ‘Love certainly deserves plenty of attention given the wide-open state of the division. I look forward to seeing her expected odds.

Runner-up PRINCESS WARRIOR was never getting to the winner but finished pretty well in what might be a smart prep run for the ‘Cup. Making only her second start, the Ken McPeek trainee obviously has some class to her and she was flattered over the weekend when the filly she beat in her debut came back to win by more than 16 lengths at Keeneland. Daughter of Midshipman is a precocious lass with likely improvement going forward and she’s got a chance to outrun expected big odds next time.

First Lady (G1):

A facile win by ZIPESSA in the one-mile turf test tells me the strength of this field is not up to par with the best in the division. Michael Stidham trainee has recorded some nice performances since her debut win but it was no surprise to see her receive a 93 BRIS Speed rating as she snapped a 15-month, eight-race losing streak. Perhaps she likes the one-mile distance better but Zipessa will be facing a stretch out in distance for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1).

I thought ROCA ROJO may have run the best in this affair when rallying with good energy into a soft early pace. Five-year-old from the Chad Brown is still a cut below the top in her division and is another who doesn’t have a realistic spot to run in at Del Mar.

Grade 1 heroine DICKINSON was the big disappointment given she defeated Lady Eli on Keeneland’s turf last spring. It will be no surprise to see the Kiraran McLaughlin receive some time off.

Spinster (G1):

ROMANTIC VISION tracked in second to the top of the lane and comfortably proved best, securing a second straight graded tally. Five-year-old mare has really come on of late for Rusty Arnold, registering the first triple-digit BRIS Speed ratings of her career posting back-to-back graded victories, and it’s easy to appreciate the peaking form the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid. But Romantic Vision has the misfortune of being in a loaded division and would still need to improve significantly to challenge at Del Mar. I will not use anything from the Spinster in the Distaff (G1).

Woodford (G2):

The results of many Keeneland turf sprints are often confusing to me and the dominant tally by BUCCHERO just adds to the list. After competing primarily on dirt for trainer Tim Glyshaw, Indiana-bred took command with ease turning for home and was never seriously challenged en route to his biggest win. Five-year-old chestnut had been outrun with ease in his last three turf races over the past 14 months, including an 11^th of 12 runners in the 2016 Woodford, so I can’t take this result all that seriously until Bucchero backs it up with another performance of this nature.

And the runners finishing behind the winner didn’t do much for me to change my opinion that Lady Aurelia and the European invaders will be very tough to beat in the Turf Sprint (G1).

Thoroughbred Club of America (G2):

FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM put in a workmanlike effort to inch clear late in her comeback attempt in what looks like an ideal prep race for the Filly and Mare Sprint (G1). Brett Calhoun charge is consistently very good and I really liked how this dark bay filly rated and closed with energy. Fleet filly had long been a front-running machine and some new doors opened up after this professional score off the layoff. Four-year-old daughter of Twirling Candy will be a must use at Del Mar.

Three-year-old CHALON was game coming back to register second for Peter Miller. Daughter of Dialed In remains the lone horse in training to defeat expected Filly & Mare Sprint favorite Unique Bella but Chalon has not progressed at the same rapid rate as her rival. I look forward to seeing the Florida-bred in 2018 but don’t expect her to be a marquee attraction in the Breeders’ Cup.

Phoenix (G2):

WHITMORE snapped a two-race win skein with a nose tally over a nice field on opening day. Ron Moquett pupil has been one of the top sprinters racing in the East and Midwest this season with a nifty 7-5-0-2 line, and his BRIS Speed figures have been super consistent in the 99-104 range. I have mentioned on various occasions that I think Drefong is on another level from his peers but if he fails to fire or gets cooked in what could be a rapid early pace, Whitmore could upset with his patented late run in the stretch.

Grade 2 victor LIMOUSINE LIBERAL was taken out of his game with a tardy break and also had to travel seven-wide for some of this dash, but he came home with fine energy to miss by a neck and a nose in a third-place try that might be better than it appears on paper. I have long liked the Ben Colebrook pupil and consider him to be a top-four player in the Sprint (G1).