2024 Breeders' Cup: Betting the All-Turf Pick 4

A longshot-dominated Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1) helped boost the payoff of the All-Turf Pick 4 payoff at Santa Anita last year.

After wins by favorites or co-favorites Inspiral, Master of The Seas, and Auguste Rodin, bettors who had 12-1 chance Nobals in the Turf Sprint were surely happy that he prevailed over a more heavily backed alternative, thus preventing a miserly return on the 50-cent wager. The payoff was a tidy $600.10.

The Turf Sprint might again play that role Saturday at Del Mar, though most likely not. I'll explain why as we go through the suggested ticket.

Breeders' Cup All-Turf Pick 4 Wager

• $10 ticket: 9 with 3,11 with 3,10 with 6,8 = $80

Race 5: Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint (G1), 3:41 p.m. ET

Anything that could go wrong can potentially go wrong when 12 of the fastest sprinters in the world attempt to dash five furlongs over a tight grass course like Del Mar's. But we can't, and shouldn't, spend more than we need to ensure ourselves against something that might not even happen.

All things being equal, #9 Cogburn (7-5) is a standout on virtually all criteria. From what we've seen of him the past two seasons, he might be the best pure grass sprinter the U.S. has ever produced. Barring the unforeseen, he will confirm that, again, in this spot.

It's unfortunate this race is the opening leg of this wager. If it is run true to form, there will be many more live tickets going into the second leg than would otherwise be the case. Cogburn was going to be most bettors' "single" regardless of where the Turf Sprint was positioned in the sequence, but most multi-race bettors would have preferred it not to be first.

Race 7: Breeders' Cup Turf (G1), 5:01 p.m. ET

As I've written and said multiple times on this site, this edition of the Turf has come up rather soft in terms of depth, both internationally and domestically. #11 Rebel's Romance (5-2), the 2022 Turf winner, brings solid enough form this year to make him the horse to beat.

Compared to Cogburn, however, a little backup might not be a bad thing to have. #3 Shahryar (10-1) makes a lot of sense. Second best to Rebel's Romance in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) in March, he outran expectations in what was clearly a stronger edition of the Turf last year when finishing third behind Auguste Rodin and Up to the Mark. Back up at his preferred trip of 1 1/2 miles, he's hard to ignore.

Race 9: Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), 6:25 p.m. ET

With another edition that has come up a touch soft compared to past renewals, I'm going to fade morning-line favorite #4 War Like Goddess and instead use #3 Cinderella's Dream (4-1), the once-beaten three-year-old who appears to fit well despite stepping up in class and trip. She produced a strong closing kick to win both the Belmont Oaks (G1) and Saratoga Oaks (G3), and frankly she has more upside than a lot of these.

Among the more battle-hardened veterans, I can see former Canadian Horse of the Year #10 Moira (8-1) improving on her solid third-place run in this event last year. She's relatively fresh, too, with just three prior runs this season.

Race 11: Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), 7:45 p.m. ET

Perhaps the most intriguing race of the weekend from a sporting and betting perspective, this offers a solid mixture of talent from both Europe and North America (with a little Japan thrown in, too).

Europe, Godolphin in particular, has dominated this race of late, and I will side with their leading candidate. #6 Notable Speech (7-2) is the lukewarm favorite and, though a bit spotty on form, looks the one to beat if he brings his A game. He should much prefer the course condition here than what he encountered in Paris last time, and his earlier wins in the 2000 Guineas (G1) and Sussex (G1) were top notch.

Following the withdrawal of #1 Ramatuelle, I'm compelled to also include who I think might be the U.S.'s best hope, #8 More Than Looks (20-1). An overachieving sixth, beaten two lengths, in last year's Mile, More Than Looks has dropped both starts this season to #12 Carl Spackler but could reverse that form in what will be the third race of his form cycle.