2024 Breeders' Cup post draw analysis and implications

The final fields are set for the 14 Breeders’ Cup races taking place at Del Mar on Nov. 1-2. Post positions were drawn on Monday, one week after pre-entries closed.

RELATED: 2024 Breeders' Cup News and Notes

The highlight of the two-day extravaganza is the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1), the richest race in North America with a purse of $7 million. An overflow field of 15 horses entered, with 14 allowed to start.

Breeders' Cup Classic

The two favorites received tricky draws. Reigning Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner #9 Fierceness (3-1) likes to press or stalk the pace on the outside, but with speedy Brooklyn (G2) winner #14 Next (8-1) and Whitney (G1) hero #12 Arthur’s Ride (15-1) drawn wide, Fierceness may find himself facing serious pace pressure from the outside.

Morning-line favorite #3 City of Troy (5-2), winner of Epsom’s Derby (G1) and three other Group 1 prizes on grass in Europe, also landed a less-than-favorable draw. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify has never run on dirt and will have to use his speed to avoid getting buried in traffic (and facing dirt kickback) from post 3. Even third choice #1 Forever Young (6-1) could be in for a tricky trip after drawing the rail, affording him few options except to drop back and try to rally through the field.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic is the fifth of nine Breeders’ Cup races taking place on Saturday. The first is the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1).

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint

#1 Frost At Dawn (30-1), switching from turf to dirt while seeking to become the first British-trained Filly & Mare Sprint winner, could have a tough time avoiding kickback from the rail draw.

In the meantime, Derby City Distaff (G1) winner #4 Vahva (4-1), Ballerina H. (G1) heroine #6 Society (3-1), and Test (G1) winner #9 Ways and Means (5-2) have all drawn well in the 10-horse field.

Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint

The Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (G1), a five-furlong dash around a single tight turn, drew a full field of 12 plus three also-eligible entrants.

#12 Bradsell (7-2), winner of the King’s Stand (G1), Nunthorpe (G1), and Flying Five (G1) in Europe over the past two seasons, could have a tough time avoiding a wide trip from the far outside post. South African Group 1 winner #10 Isivunguvungu (20-1) and 2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) winner #11 Big Evs (12-1) also drew wide posts.

With these three drawn outside, heavy morning-line favorite #9 Cogburn (7-5) — a record-setting winner of the Jaipur (G1) — has every chance to save more ground and secure a winning trip from post 9.

Breeders' Cup Distaff

This year’s Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner #2 Thorpedo Anna (4-5) is an odds-on favorite to beat older rivals in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), but drawing post 2 could potentially complicate her path to victory; she was beaten a head against males in the Travers (G1) after having to wait in traffic along the inside on the far turn.

In contrast, undefeated Japanese raider #9 Awesome Result (4-1) should have no trouble working out a clear trip from post 9 in a 10-horse field.

Breeders' Cup Turf

The always-competitive Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) has drawn a stellar international field.

#4 Luxembourg (12-1), seeking to give trainer Aidan O’Brien an eighth win in the race, is set for a ground-saving trip after landing post 4. Also eligible to save ground is the multiple Group 1-winning mare #2 Emily Upjohn (5-1).

Meanwhile, 2022 Breeders’ Cup Turf hero #11 Rebel’s Romance (5-2) may have to use his tactical speed to avoid a wide trip from post 11.

Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf

In the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (G1), #4 War Like Goddess (5-2) will break from post 4 in her fourth Breeders’ Cup appearance. The stretch-running mare finished third in the 2021 Filly & Mare Turf and has since been third and seventh against males in the last two editions of the Turf.

Post 4 should suit War Like Goddess just fine, opening the door for a ground-saving trip, and key rivals #3 Cinderella’s Dream (4-1), #7 Content (6-1), and #10 Moira (8-1) have also drawn well. At least on paper, post positions shouldn’t significantly impact the Filly & Mare Turf.

Breeders' Cup Sprint

The Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) typically features a hot pace, and 2024 shouldn’t be an exception. Fast Phoenix (G2) winner #3 Federal Judge (3-1) has set the pace in each of his last four starts and figures to come out gunning for the lead from post 3. He’ll have to run fast to make the front since gate-to-wire Forego (G1) winner #10 Mullikin (7-2) and pure pacesetters #8 Straight No Chaser (5-1) and #11 Skelly (8-1) have drawn outside posts and figure to use their speed to avoid wide trips.

Throw in the fact that #1 Raging Torrent (10-1) — who has wired each of his last three starts — has drawn the rail, and anything other than a blazing Sprint pace would be surprising.

Breeders' Cup Mile

The Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) annually pits North America’s top milers against talented challengers from abroad.

#1 Carl Spackler (6-1) is the top hope for the home team, but the speedy Fourstardave H. (G1) and Turf Mile (G1) winner will have to come out running to avoid a wide trip from post 12. The Group 1-winning European raiders #6 Notable Speech (7-2) and #7 Porta Fortuna (4-1) drew better in posts 6 and 7 and may gain an advantage as a result.

Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile

The Saturday card concludes with the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1).

The field contains plenty of pace from inside to outside, including 2023 Pennsylvania Derby (G1) winner #1 Saudi Crown (5-1), Alysheba (G2) runner-up #2 T O Saint Denis (30-1), Pacific Classic (G1) runner-up #3 Full Serrano (15-1), Preakness (G1) winner #6 Seize the Grey (10-1), Fred W. Hooper (G3) winner #7 Tumbarumba (30-1), Vosburgh (G3) winner #12 Mufasa (12-1), 2022 Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile starter #13 Pipeline (30-1), and two-time Charles Town Classic (G2) winner #14 Skippylongstocking (4-1).

All this pace throughout the pack could lend an edge to #9 Domestic Product (7-2), the morning-line favorite after rallying from far off a hot tempo to win the H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1).

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

Friday’s Breeders’ Cup action gets underway with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). There are 12 horses in the main body of the field plus two on the also-eligible list.

#8 Ecoro Sieg (7-2) from Japan has drawn well in post 8, affording him options for working out a favorable trip on the front end. #10 Governor Sam (12-1), one of the other key speed horses, has drawn farther outside and will have to sprint hard if he wants to clear Ecoro Sieg.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) drew the co-smallest Breeders’ Cup field with only 10 entrants.

Runaway Frizette (G1) winner #10 Scottish Lassie (5-2) landed the far outside post, but that shouldn’t be an issue in this modest-sized field. Two-time Grade 1 winner #3 Immersive (3-1) has a chance to save ground from post 3, while Japanese raider #9 American Bikini (5-1) figures to flash speed from post 9.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

An overflow field of 17 entered the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), of which 14 will be allowed to start.

#1 Lake Victoria (8-5), the heralded Moyglare Stud (G1) and Cheveley Park (G1) winner shipping in from Ireland, must avoid getting buried in traffic from post 1.

Second choice #7 Thought Process (5-2) has more options for working out a clean trip; the gate-to-wire Surfer Girl (G3) winner has every chance to secure a forward position from post 7.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile

Road to the Kentucky Derby qualification points are up for grabs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), which, like the Juvenile Fillies, drew 10 entries.

Runaway Breeders’ Futurity (G1) winner #1 East Avenue (5-2) has wired each of his first two starts and must break alertly from post 1 to avoid getting buried in traffic, especially with speedy Best Pal (G3) winner #2 Getaway Car (20-1) directly to his outside.

Del Mar Futurity (G1) winner #7 Gaming (8-1) and American Pharoah (G1) conqueror #6 Citizen Bull (10-1) landed more favorable draws, while stretch-running Champagne (G1) hero #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) shouldn’t be bothered by the far outside post.

Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf

The Breeders’ Cup Friday action wraps up with the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

If Summer (G1) winner #11 New Century (5-2), Vintage (G2) hero #12 Aomori City (10-1), or Futurity (G2) winner #13 Henri Matisse (6-1) are going to prevail, they’ll have to do so from double-digit draws.

Summer runner-up #4 Al Qudra (4-1) drew better in post 4, while two-time graded stakes winner #5 Zulu Kingdom (8-1) has ample opportunity to save ground from post 5.