Breeders’ Cup 2024: Friday contenders under the radar

Deep fields have been assembled for the five two-year-old races taking place during the first day of the Breeders’ Cup on Friday at Del Mar.

When top-tier horses from around the world square off in rich races, live longshots abound. Let’s highlight a trio of under-the-radar contenders with chances to outrun expectations at double-digit odds:

Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)

If Japanese sensation #9 American Bikini (5-1) is one of the favorites to beat her American counterparts in the Juvenile Fillies, then #6 Otomena Shacho (20-1) — the other raider from Japan — shouldn’t be underestimated at four times the price.

American Bikini and Otomena Shacho have met once already; in a maiden sprint at Kokura, they ran 1-2 while separated by seven lengths. Otomena Shacho subsequently took a step forward, winning a maiden race at Chukyo in the fast time of 1:10.7 for 1,200 meters (about six furlongs), breaking the juvenile course record by 0.4 seconds.

Otomena Shacho brings early speed to the table and has the pedigree to successfully stretch out over 1 1/16 miles. A spot in the trifecta or superfecta isn’t out of the question.

Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)

When #6 Citizen Bull (10-1) debuted in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight during the summer at Del Mar, trainer Bob Baffert told TwinSpires the son of Into Mischief wasn’t cranked for a peak performance. Nevertheless, Citizen Bull pressed the pace on his way to victory.

Citizen Bull subsequently rallied to finish third in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), after which he wired the American Pharoah (G1) with a 100 Brisnet Speed rating that tops the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field. Citizen Bull has improved steadily under Baffert’s guidance and enters off blazing workouts, including a pair of bullet five-furlong exercises, so who’s to say he won’t move forward again in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile?

The Juvenile favorites have questions to answer; #1 East Avenue (5-2) rode an inside bias when dominating the Breeders’ Futurity (G1), and #10 Chancer McPatrick (3-1) is a deep closer stretching out around two turns for the first time. As a result, Citizen Bull ranks as a serious win threat at compelling odds.

Race 10: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1)

Charlie Appleby has trained 10 Breeders’ Cup winners from only 20 starters, a phenomenal 50% win rate. Eight of those winners were ridden by William Buick.

Appleby has entered two horses in the Juvenile Turf, a race he’s won three times. #4 Al Qudra (4-1) was ridden by Buick when finishing second in the Summer (G1) at Woodbine, but on Friday, Buick will retain the mount on #12 Aomori City (10-1).

Buick has guided Aomori City in three straight starts, including a win in the Vintage (G2) at Goodwood and a fourth-place finish in the Vincent O’Brien National (G1) at the Curragh. His win at Goodwood is notable because the course features a meaningful turn (whereas many juvenile races in Europe take place over straight courses), and two of Appleby’s three Juvenile Turf winners raced around the turn at Goodwood prior to the Breeders’ Cup.

The evidence suggests Aomori City is a more likely Juvenile Turf winner than Al Qudra, making his 10-1 morning-line odds enticing.

Good luck!