Five questions to be answered on 2024 Breeders’ Cup Future Stars Friday

The two-day Breeders’ Cup extravaganza opens with Future Stars Friday, featuring five Grade 1 races for two-year-olds.

Divisional Eclipse Awards are at stake in the Juvenile (G1) and Juvenile Fillies (G1). Moreover, the winners of those championship events will emerge as the early favorites for the 2025 Kentucky Derby (G1) and Oaks (G1), respectively.

The three juvenile turf races serve up fascinating clashes of global form as well, with the prospect of igniting even more in the future.

Here are five questions that Future Stars Friday will answer:

1. Will East Avenue’s tactical speed or Chancer McPatrick’s closing kick prevail in the Juvenile?

The top two on the morning line, East Avenue and Chancer McPatrick, are both unbeaten colts who have looked exceptionally talented but in different ways. East Avenue demolishes on the front end, while Chancer McPatrick delivers the coup de grace late. 

Which style will win out? East Avenue’s trainer, Brendan Walsh, has said that he doesn’t need the lead. But since the Godolphin homebred has drawn the rail, he might find himself in front just by virtue of flashing tactical speed to gain position. 

There’s also a third possibility — that the race sets up best for someone else. Gaming, 2-for-2 at Del Mar, is eligible to work out an advantageous trip from just off the pace.

2. Can Scottish Lassie repeat her last effort in the Juvenile Fillies?

While Scottish Lassie had plausible claims to improve from her third in a Saratoga maiden, few could have forecast her absolute rout of the Frizette (G1). She ran almost as fast as Chancer McPatrick did in the Champagne (G1).

Considering that Scottish Lassie took a quantum leap forward last time out, can she duplicate such an effort here? Or is it likelier that she’ll regress a tad?

By the same token, a few of her rivals had turned in higher Brisnet Speed ratings two starts back and didn’t quite run back to them in their latest. I’d argue that they’re in position to move forward again. The most intriguing in this category is La Cara, who romped in a Saratoga maiden before grinding out a slowly-run Pocahontas (G3). On paper, she appears to have “bounced” and won anyway, which would make her a serious threat if she resumes her progress. 

3. Will the Japanese juveniles make their presence felt?

The Japanese squad always figured to be formidable in Saturday’s races, but more two-year-olds than ever are flying the flag on Friday. 

American Pharoah’s daughter American Bikini and the $800,000 colt Shin Believe are Japan’s main hopes in the dirt events. But the team probably has stronger chances on the turf. Record-setting speedster Ecoro Sieg bids to run them off their feet in the Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1). In the Juvenile Turf (G1), Satono Carnaval rates as a sleeper at 20-1. He’s an eye-catching first Breeders’ Cup contender for one of Japan’s top horsemen, Noriyuki Hori. 

If any of them jump up, expect a raft of Japanese juveniles to descend upon the 2025 Breeders’ Cup, also at Del Mar.

4. Will Aidan O’Brien win his third straight Juvenile Turf?

Given the strength, depth, and breadth of the Ballydoyle roster, it’s no surprise that Aidan O’Brien holds the record of six wins in the Juvenile Turf. He’s going for a third straight victory on Friday, and it could be a tip that he relies exclusively on Henri Matisse.

But Henri Matisse has made babyish mistakes, most notably costing himself a score in the Vincent O’Brien National (G1) by lurching left and right. He has little margin for error around a two-turn mile at Del Mar, especially from post 13. 

If Henri Matisse puts it all together, he’ll head into his winter break as an even better prospect for the classics. If he doesn’t, it will be another learning experience. 

5. Will Lake Victoria buck the Juvenile Fillies Turf trend?

International shippers have found it more difficult to win the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) than its companion race. Only three European-based fillies have overcome the home team in its 16-year history, and just one of those was trained by O’Brien.

Yet O’Brien’s Lake Victoria is the clear favorite to remain perfect in her fifth start. The Frankel filly went last-to-first in the seven-furlong Moyglare Stud (G1), then came back 13 days later and used her early speed to win the six-furlong Cheveley Park (G1). But what tactics will she employ in this first start at a mile? If the goal is to gauge her stamina, she might end up farther back than ideal; if she shows speed on the rail, will she get the trip?

As a percentage play, Virgin Colada looks like a 20-1 overlay for six-time Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Chad Brown. She hasn’t gotten the right race shape in her stakes in New York, but the pace should be at least genuine.