Scully: Longshots to consider for 2024 Breeders’ Cup

Nineteen Japanese shippers add to the international appeal of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup, and handicappers seeking value hope Saturday’s nine Breeders’ Cup races at Del Mar don’t prove as formful as last year, with seven favorites and a close second choice winning at Santa Anita.

Nobals, overlooked at 12-1 in the Turf Sprint, wound up being the lone exception on Saturday’s program.

Longshots played a bigger role Friday, with Fierceness (16-1), Hard to Justify (9-1), and Just F Y I (7-1) recording at least minor upsets last year, and I’ve identified five Breeders’ Cup race contenders at double-digit morning-line odds who will be included in my wagers at Del Mar this weekend.

2024 Breeders' Cup News and Notes

Noble Confessor (12-1), Juvenile Turf

After dropping his first two starts at short odds on the main track, Noble Confessor switched to the turf for the Sept. 28 Pilgrim (G2) at Aqueduct and showed good tactical ability from the inside before missing by only a neck to undefeated Zulu Kingdom, who was odds-on following a win in the With Anticipation (G2). 

By Quality Road, the sire of 2014 Juvenile Turf winner Hootenanny, Noble Confessor is the first foal out of a turf-winning mare who counts multiple graded turf winner and 2019 Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) third-placer Sweet Melania as a half-sister. He may still be a maiden for Todd Pletcher, but Noble Confessor is a candidate to keep moving forward off a strong showing in his turf debut.

Soul of an Angel (12-1), Filly & Mare Sprint 

Formerly a two-turn type, Soul of an Angel will be included in my wagers after cutting back to record a convincing win in the Sept. 21 Princess Rooney (G3) at Gulfstream Park. That marked her first attempt at the seven-furlong Filly & Mare Sprint distance, and the five-year-old mare registered career-best Brisnet Speed (101) and Late Pace (112) ratings for the 3 1/4-length decision. Soul of an Angel enters on the upswing for Saffie Joseph Jr.

Shahryar (10-1), Turf

Overlooked at 25-1 in last year’s Turf, Shahryar rallied well to finish less than two lengths back in third. The Japanese-based horse has improved at age six for trainer Hideaki Fujiwara, finishing second in the Dubai Sheema Classic (G1) and a respectable fifth in the Sapporo Kinen (G2) in his last two outings (he was never a factor recording unplaced efforts in both races last year), and Shahryar won’t face a 2024 Turf field with the depth of Auguste Rodin and Up to the Mark, the top two finishers last year. He looks like a serious player with Christian Demuro.

Newgate (20-1), Classic

I will tab Newgate for an upset in his second start back from a freshening. Trained by Bob Baffert, who owns a record four Classic wins, Newgate established himself as a rising presence in the three-year-old division early in 2023 but missed the rest of the season, returning from an 11-month hiatus in January. He progressed nicely in a trio of starts, capped by a game win in the 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita H. (G1), but earned another rest after a no-show effort in March’s Dubai World Cup (G1). 

Newgate came back better than ever in the Sept. 28 California Crown (G1), overcoming a slow start to rally gamely off a moderate pace to miss by a neck in third to Subsanador and National Treasure, and he returned to the work tab with a pair of five-furlong bullet drills in preparation. The son of Into Mischief exits a fast race, netting career-best Brisnet Speed (107) and Late Pace (115) numbers, and Baffert adds blinkers to keep the midpack stalker more focused from the gate. Newgate is eligible to receive a favorable setup with Frankie Dettori. 

Raging Torrent (10-1), Sprint 

Last seen winning the Pat O’Brien (G2) at Del Mar in late August, snapping a six-race win streak for odds-on The Chosen Vron, Raging Torrent enters on a three-race win streak for Doug O’Neill, earning massive Brisnet Speed ratings for a pair of performances on fast tracks. The developing three-year-old colt figures to put his speed to good use from the rail post, and Raging Torrent will look to make a serious impact with a projected forward trip in the Sprint.