Brisnet Late Pace Rating report for 2022 Kentucky Derby

A handicapping tool for the Kentucky Derby (G1), Brisnet Late Pace ratings measure how fast a horse ran from the second call of a race to the wire.

The Kentucky Derby will be the first start at the 1 1/4-mile distance for contestants, and past winners have earned strong Late Pace numbers in prep races.

Since 2010, American Pharoah, Justify, Nyquist, Always Dreaming, I’ll Have Another, Orb, and Animal Kingdom all registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings, at least once, from their final two starts before winning the Kentucky Derby.

No horse has finished first in the Kentucky Derby without netting at least an 86 Late Pace figure in the final prep over that time span.

Let’s take a look at the 2022 contenders (excluding a pair of international shippers), ranked by highest last-out number.

2022 Kentucky Derby Late Pace

MO DONEGAL	121
	93
ZANDON	114
	93
TAIBA	109
	99
EPICENTER	106
	89
TIZ THE BOMB	105
	88
SMILE HAPPY	102
	93
MESSIER	102
	100
ZOZOS	98
	111
HAPPY JACK	95
	81
PIONEER OF MEDINA	95
	86
CYBERKNIFE	86
	91
BARBER ROAD	86
	108
TAWNY PORT	85
	99
*IN DUE TIME	82
	88
*ETHEREAL ROAD	82
	88
WHITE ABARRIO	77
	95
CHARGE IT	77
	107
UN OJO	74
	105
SIMPLIFICATION	70
	94
* Outside the top 20

Takeaways

Seven contenders – Mo Donegal (121), Zandon (114), Taiba (109), Epicenter (106), Tiz the Bomb (105), Smile Happy (102), and Messier (102) – registered triple-digit Late Pace ratings in the final prep. Four others – Zozos, Barber Road, Charge It, and Un Ojo – accomplished it in their penultimate start.

Wood Memorial winner Mo Donegal and Zandon earned massive last-out numbers. Justify (114) is the only official winner with a last-out 110+ figure since 2010, but Maximum Security earned a 123 in the Florida Derby before being disqualified for interference in 2019.

From the final two preps, the Blue Grass (Zandon and Smile Happy), Santa Anita Derby (Taiba and Messier), and Rebel (Un Ojo, Barber Road, and Ethereal Road) produced multiple runners with triple-digit Late Pace ratings.

The Arkansas Derby was not fast late, as Cyberknife (86), Barber Road (86), and Un Ojo (74) all rank outside the top 10 in last-race numbers.

The Florida Derby came back slower, as White Abarrio (77), Charge It (77), and Simplification (70) all failed to get out of the 70s.