Brisnet Speed Rating report for 2022 Kentucky Derby

I use Brisnet Speed ratings when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, as they provide a measure of how fast horses have run in their preceding races.

Triple-digit Speed ratings have been a common trait for Kentucky Derby winners. There are exceptions, but since the qualifying points system was implemented in 2013, eight of the nine Kentucky Derby winners have earned at least a 102 Speed rating in their final two starts leading up to the first Saturday in May.

Let’s take a look at the 2022 contenders (excluding a pair of international shippers), ranked by highest last-out number.

MO DONEGAL	111
	92
TAIBA	111
	100
MESSIER	108
	104
ZANDON	103
	94
EPICENTER	101
	98
TIZ THE BOMB	101
	90
SMILE HAPPY	101
	95
ZOZOS	98
	94
HAPPY JACK	97
	90
WHITE ABARRIO	96
	97
PIONEER OF MEDINA	96
	94
CYBERKNIFE	94
	94
CHARGE IT	94
	98
SIMPLIFICATION	93
	95
BARBER ROAD	91
	91
TAWNY PORT	90
	99
*IN DUE TIME	87
	91
*ETHEREAL ROAD	86
	91
UN OJO	78
	92
CLASSIC CAUSEWAY	72
	90
*Outside the top 20

Takeaways

Brisnet numbers are strong this year. In 2021, three horses were tied with a field-best 102 Speed rating. Four contenders exceed that threshold in 2022 — Mo Donegal (111), Taiba (111), Messier (108), and Zandon (103). And three others — Epicenter, Smile Happy, and Tiz the Bomb — earned a 101 figure in their last prep race.

In the last decade, Justify (2018) is the only Kentucky Derby winner to earn a bigger number in their final prep than Mo Donegal, Taiba, and Messier, receiving a 114 Speed rating for his Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory.

While just missing triple digits, Charge It (98) and Zozos (98) remain promising types based on Speed numbers. The lightly-raced horses performed admirably when making their stakes debut in difficult spots, and they will look to keep showing more on Derby Day.

Contestants from the Arkansas Derby (G1) and Florida Derby (G1) rank outside the top nine in terms of last-out Speed ratings.

By comparison, the Santa Anita Derby produced two of the three fastest performances among Kentucky Derby contenders.