Brisnet Speed Rating Report for 2023 Belmont Stakes

Post positions for the 155th running of the $1.5 million Belmont S. (G1) will be drawn Tuesday, and nine are considered probable for the 1 1/2-mile “Test of the Champion.” Let’s examine their credentials and Brisnet Speed ratings.

One of two runners for four-time Belmont winner Todd Pletcher, Forte is the probable favorite after being scratched from the Kentucky Derby (G1). The two-year-old champion male returns after a 10-week layoff, recording a two-length victory over the subsequent Kentucky Derby winner in the Florida Derby (G1), and Forte has won five straight. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. will seek his third Belmont win.

Blue Grass (G1) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3) victor Tapit Trice will seek to rebound for Pletcher after a belated seventh as the 9-2 second choice in the Kentucky Derby. A slow starter, Tapit Trice will attempt to race closer after dropping far back at Churchill Downs in the early stages. Luis Saez guides the late runner.

After establishing moderate early splits winning the Preakness (G1), National Treasure may face another favorable pace scenario in the final leg of the Triple Crown. None of his eight rivals are confirmed frontrunners, and the Bob Baffert-trained National Treasure figures to show speed from the gate with John Velazquez.

Arkansas Derby (G1) and Risen Star (G2) winner Angel of Empire merits respect for Brad Cox following a third as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. His stablemate, Wood Memorial (G2) runner-up Hit Show, also rates as dangerous after chasing a wicked pace in the Kentucky Derby, recording a better-than-it-looks fifth.

Arcangelo exits a fast win in the local prep, the May 13 Peter Pan (G3), scoring gamely in his stakes debut. Preakness fourth-placer Red Route One, last-out stakes runner-up Tapit Shoes, and recent allowance scorer Il Miracolo round out the expected field.

Here are the last two Brisnet Speed ratings for the contenders, ranked by highest last-out number.

ANGEL OF EMPIRE	101
	101
ARCANGELO	101
	97
FORTE	100
	103
NATIONAL TREASURE	100
	97
TAPIT SHOES	98
	95
HIT SHOW	96
	99
RED ROUTE ONE	94
	98
TAPIT TRICE	93
	102
IL MIRACOLO	89
	85

Takeaways

Arcangelo and Angel of Empire own the highest last-out Speed ratings (101), and I give more credence to Arcangelo’s winning performance over Angel of Empire’s belated, non-threatening third. It’s a tenuous advantage for the pair, as Forte and National Treasure also received triple-digit numbers last out.

Forte’s numbers hold up strong, registering a field-best 103 rating for a romping win in the Fountain of Youth (G2) two back, and he’s netted triple-digit figures in four of his last five starts.

National Treasure enters on the upswing for a three-time Belmont-winning conditioner, displaying steady progression in recent starts.

Tapit Trice certainly fits, earning a 102 figure for the Blue Grass, and it would be no surprise to see him rebound in the Belmont. Pletcher’s last three Belmont winners — Mo Donegal, Tapwrit, and Palace Malice — were exiting unplaced efforts in the Kentucky Derby.

Tapit Shoes will face a class check in his first graded stakes attempt, winning only one of five starts, but his increasing numbers hold some appeal. Hit Show is also on the fringe, close to triple-digit territory and seemingly moving forward at the right time, and he’s eligible to receive a favorable up-close trip.

Red Route One packs a late punch, but a minor award may be a realistic goal given his lower Speed ratings. Il Miracolo appears too slow to challenge.