Brisnet Speed Rating Report for 2023 Kentucky Derby

Brisnet Speed ratings provide a measure of how fast horses have run in their preceding races and serve as a valuable handicapping tool for Saturday’s 149th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Past winners often earn triple-digit Speed ratings in prep races, but Rich Strike proved to be an exception, jumping forward by seven points to net a 102 Speed figure recording an 80-1 upset in the 2022 Kentucky Derby.

Six runners in the main body of the 20-horse field, and one on the also-eligible list, meet the triple-digit threshold this year. Let’s examine the contestants, excluding international shippers since only North American races are rated, ranked by the top last-out number.

TWO PHIL’S	107
	94
TAPIT TRICE	102
	95
VERIFYING	102
	89
ANGEL OF EMPIRE	101
	97
FORTE	100
	103
PRACTICAL MOVE	100
	102
*MANDARIN HERO	100
	n/a
LORD MILES	99
	89
HIT SHOW	99
	96
MAGE	99
	95
SKINNER	99
	98
KINGSBARNS	98
	91
DISARM	97
	94
*CYCLONE MISCHIEF	97
	97
ROCKET CAN	96
	98
REINCARNATE	96
	92
*KING RUSSELL	96
	85
CONFIDENCE GAME	95
	87
SUN THUNDER	95
	89
RAISE CAIN	94
	90
JACE’S ROAD	91
	82
*Outside the top 20

TAKEAWAYS

Angel of Empire, Forte, Practical Move, Tapit Trice, Two Phil’s, and Verifying all earned triple-digit Speed ratings in the last start. That’s a top-heavy list of Kentucky Derby contenders. And Mandarin Hero, who netted a 100 Speed rating when finishing a nose second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) in his U.S. debut, will merit respect if he draws in from the also-eligible list.

Two Phil’s registered a field-best 107 Speed rating for a convincing win in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), but that performance came over the synthetic Tapeta track at Turfway Park. His previous dirt numbers weren’t as fast, but he’s a Grade 3 winner over the track and appears to be moving forward. Two Phil’s will have to overcome an inside draw (post 3).

Angel of Empire has proven fast enough to win and brings a favorable pattern of increasing Speed numbers into the Kentucky Derby. Tapit Trice has a similar profile, stamping himself as a viable win contender with a strong win in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, but the slow-starting colt drew poorly in post 5.

Since smartly winning his career debut, Verifying has been well-regarded, and the son of 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify finally put it all together with an outstanding neck second in the Blue Grass. He figures to be forward from an inside post with eight-time leading Churchill Downs jockey Tyler Gaffalione.

Forte and Practical Move rate as extremely dangerous, the only runners in the field to register three consecutive triple-digit Speed ratings, and it will be no surprise to see either run big. However, in the final prep, the first start at 1 1/8 miles for both top-class colts, they registered declining figures. Both ran faster at age two, which isn’t a favorable indicator, but it’s probably wise to not dismiss the win chances for Forte and Practical Move.

The rest of the field has work to do. It’s not easy to move forward significantly with a career-best Speed rating in the Kentucky Derby, but lightning struck in the form of Rich Strike last year, providing a measure of hope for all the Kentucky Derby longshots on Saturday.

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Find expert analysis and overviews of all the contenders for the Kentucky Derby on our News & Notes page here on TwinSpires.com!