Brisnet Speed Rating report for 2023 Preakness
Preakness Day, Pimlico Race Course (Photo by Horsephotos.com)
May 18th, 2023
Only a couple of days remain until Monday’s post position draw for the 148th running of the $1.5 million Preakness at Pimlico on May 20, and 11 appear probable for the 1 3/16-mile race.
Mage looms as the presumptive favorite following his one-length victory in the Kentucky Derby, the initial stakes triumph from four career starts, where the up-and-coming colt netted a career-best 103 Brisnet Speed rating.
Disarm (fourth) and Confidence Game (10th) are also expected back from the Kentucky Derby two weeks earlier, in addition to the “new shooters” to the Triple Crown, which include an intriguing quintet.
First Mission and Arabian Lion, the respective 1-2 finishers from the April 15 Lexington (G3) at Keeneland, will receive betting support.
A romping maiden winner when making his two-turn debut second time out in mid-March, First Mission followed with a commendable half-length triumph in the Lexington, registering 103 Brisnet Speed and Late Pace numbers after reeling in loose-on-the-lead pacesetter Arabian Lion.
Bob Baffert, a record seven-time Preakness winner, will join the Triple Crown fray with probable pacesetter Arabian Lion and multiple Grade 1-placed National Treasure, who exits a fourth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).
Grade 1-winning juvenile Blazing Sevens appears back on track after a rallying third in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland. Trainer Chad Brown bypassed the Kentucky Derby in favor of the second jewel of the Triple Crown, a strategy he’s employed successfully with Preakness winners Early Voting (2022) and Cloud Computing (2016).
Red Route One was under serious Kentucky Derby consideration after runner-up finishes in the Rebel (G2) and Southwest (G3) but failed to earn the necessary qualifying points when sixth in the Arkansas Derby (G1). The confirmed closer rebounded with a game stakes win in the Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn Park on April 22, and the Steve Asmussen-trained colt may continue to show more off the confidence-builder.
Here are the last two Speed ratings for the contenders, ranked by highest last-out number.
|
MAGE |
103 |
|
|
99 |
|
FIRST MISSION |
103 |
|
|
93 |
|
ARABIAN LION |
102 |
|
|
94 |
|
DISARM |
98 |
|
|
97 |
|
RED ROUTE ONE |
98 |
|
|
95 |
|
NATIONAL TREASURE |
97 |
|
|
97 |
|
BLAZING SEVENS |
95 |
|
|
73 |
|
PERFORM |
94 |
|
|
88 |
|
CONFIDENCE GAME |
88 |
|
|
95 |
|
IL MIRACOLO |
88 |
|
|
81 |
|
CHASE THE CHAOS |
81 |
|
|
82 |
|
|
|
Takeaways
Mage, First Mission, and Arabian Lion figure to lead the betting market, with this trio standing apart by earning century-topping numbers in their last outing.
It’s not an overwhelming advantage. None reached the triple-digit threshold prior to their last start, and progressive types are still emerging in the three-year-old division at this point in the season.
Mage ranked seventh by last-out Speed rating in the 18-horse Kentucky Derby field.
Disarm, Red Route One, National Treasure, and Blazing Sevens have held their own against top competition, and all bring improving Speed ratings to the Preakness.
Grade 2 winner Confidence Game chased a hot pace in the Kentucky Derby before weakening. Given he was probably a race short off the 10-week layoff, he rates as a candidate to improve upon the 95 rating earned two starts back.
Perform will face a significant class check, and Chase the Chaos and Il Miracolo appear too slow to challenge.
