Can Japan challenge in the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks?

The New York Racing Association announced Wednesday the Japan-based 3-year-olds Master Fencer and Jodie will compete in the $1 million Belmont Derby (G1) and the $750,000 Belmont Oaks (G1), respectively.

The Derby and the Oaks, a pair of 1 1/4-mile turf tests scheduled for July 6 at Belmont Park, have quickly risen in prominence since their creation in 2014. The races have attracted high-quality challengers from Europe, but Master Fencer and Jodie will push the international intrigue to a new level as the first horses from Japan to contest either race.

From a sporting perspective they’ll add excitement regardless of how they perform, but from a handicapping perspective, how much respect should we give to their chances? How might they stack up against the top contenders from the U.S. and Europe? That’s a tough read.

Master Fencer will be switching from dirt to turf after performing admirably in the U.S. Triple Crown. He unleashed eye-catching late rallies to finish sixth in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and fifth in the Belmont Stakes (G1), which demonstrated he can hold his own against classy competition on dirt in North America.

Whether he can do the same on turf is unclear, though his pedigree and race record suggests it’s not out of the question. Master Fencer ran twice going 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles) on grass last year and showed promise. He finished second at Hanshin and then fourth at Chukyo, where a slow pace prevented him from gaining ground despite sprinting the final 600 meters in :34.70.

As for pedigree, Master Fencer’s sire, Just a Way, was the world’s top-rated racehorse in 2014 off his powerful triumph in the Dubai Turf (G1). Just a Way won four group 1 races on grass during his decorated career, so there’s no reason to think Master Fencer will struggle switching back to the lawn.

There are definitely no such concerns surrounding Jodie, who has run exclusively on turf so far. She has shown flashes of potential with frontrunning tactics, has placed twice at the group stakes level this year, and even competed in the Japanese Oaks (G1). Arguably her best effort came in the 2,000-meter Flora Stakes (G2) at Tokyo, where she set the pace and finished third, beaten a half-length, while clocking the distance in 1:59.60.

Jodie’s tactical speed is reminiscent of her sire, Daiwa Major, a Japanese classic winner who used pace-pressing tactics to score five group 1 wins. Daiwa Major was at his best running a mile, but he was able to stretch his speed to win the 2,000-meter Tenno Sho Autumn (G1), and Jodie appears to be following in his footsteps when it comes to running style and surface/distance preferences.

It is possible U.S. handicappers will be turned off by Jodie’s 14th-place finish in the Japanese Oaks, taking it as an indication she isn’t up for competing against top-class company. But the 2,400-meter distance was probably farther than she prefers, a theory that takes on added credence when you consider how Victoria and Shadow Diva (Jodie’s two narrow conquerors in the shorter Flora Stakes) ran well to finish fourth and sixth in the Japanese Oaks.

All this doesn’t necessarily mean I’ll be supporting Master Fencer and Jodie in the Belmont Derby and Belmont Oaks. The races are still three weeks away, and I’ll have to analyze the other contenders before making any selections. But judging from their race records, there’s no reason to believe Master Fencer and Jodie won’t be effective running 1 1/4 miles over the Belmont Park turf. They should find the circumstances ideal, and they just might outrun expectations.