Canterbury: A single for the $16,433 Pick 5 carryover

There are two good reasons to play Sunday’s 50-cent Late Pick 5 at Canterbury Park. One is the low 10% takeout rate. The other is the $16,433 carryover.

The sequence spans Race 4 through Race 8 (first post time 3:57 p.m. ET). It’s a mixed bag as far as mathematical complexity goes; a couple of the races drew only seven horses, but two others feature 11-horse fields. All told, there are 47,432 possible outcomes before scratches.

Looking for a single to build tickets around? We recommend checking out Race 8, which features one of the seven-horse fields. It’s a $5,000 claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt, and though all seven entrants are exiting one or more poor performances, morning line favorite #5 Mighty Gin Gin (9-5) at least has an obvious excuse for her recent defeats.

Mighty Gin Gin has finished fourth and sixth in her last two starts against $7,500 claimers on turf at Canterbury Park. Those efforts represent her only turf tries to date and match her fruitless 2-0-0-0 record on synthetic.

In contrast, Mighty Gin Gin has gone 3-for-10 on dirt. Back in February, she charged from a couple lengths off the pace to win an $8,000 claimer dashing six furlongs on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a career-best 78 Brisnet Speed rating.

Getting back on dirt at Canterbury Park might be all Mighty Gin Gin needs to visit the winner’s circle, especially since trainer Tim Padilla wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses switching from turf to dirt, far exceeding his overall win rate, which hasn’t climbed above 16% in recent years.

But there are other positives in Mighty Gin Gin’s favor as well. The drop in class from $7,500 claimers to a $5,000 claimer should simplify her path to victory. Also, she’s meeting a largely uninspiring field—four of her six rivals are exiting defeats in $4,000 claimers.

All of these factors combine to establish Mighty Gin Gin as a trustworthy single to conclude the Pick 5, leaving us with only 6,776 possible outcomes to analyze across the first four races.

Good luck!