Carryover watch: Aqueduct's $84,991 Pick 6, Turfway's $9,134 Super High 5
Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to bet (including a 12-1 longshot) in a pair of Saturday carryovers at Aqueduct and Turfway Park.
Aqueduct, Race 5: $84,991 Pick 6 carryover (1:42 p.m. ET)
Have you heard the news? There’s an $84,991 non-jackpot Pick 6 carryover on the agenda for Saturday’s stakes-packed card at Aqueduct.
Constructing a winning ticket for the $1 wager won’t be easy. Every race contains a minimum of eight horses, and there are 774,400 possible outcomes before scratches.
What is a single, and why are they valuable?
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) August 7, 2021
That's a great question!
Let's ask @J_Keelerman ⬇️ https://t.co/WTuXqaYlAW
If you’re looking for ways to simplify the handicapping process, we’re here to help with a couple of suggested singles to start the Pick 6:
Race 5: Allowance (six furlongs): #6 Sheriff Bianco (7-5)
Sheriff Bianco has been on fire since switching form turf to dirt. First the four-year-old gelding obliterated a six-furlong allowance at Aqueduct by 11 3/4 lengths, earning an 84 Brisnet Speed rating. Then Sheriff Bianco tackled a $45,000 allowance optional claimer over the same track and distance and romped by 5 1/2 lengths, earning a career-best 104 Brisnet Speed rating.
Both over those victories came against New York-bred rivals, but Sheriff Bianco looks ready to conquer non-state-restricted competition on Saturday. None of his rivals have ever posted a triple-digit Brisnet Speed rating, and Sheriff Bianco’s perfect 2-for-2 record over the Aqueduct main track is enticing. We’ll confidently single him to start the Pick 6.
Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile): #6 Slip Mahoney (7-2)
Slip Mahoney is bred top and bottom to run long and improve with maturity, considering he’s a son of Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) winner Arrogate out of Spinster (G1) winner Got Lucky, herself a daughter of Belmont (G1) hero and renowned stamina influence A.P. Indy.
Can a horse's sire indicate which race conditions he or she will relish?@J_Keelerman certainly thinks so!
— TwinSpires Racing 🏇 (@TwinSpires) September 29, 2021
He explains 👇 https://t.co/6F0AeqAzs6
Nevertheless, Slip Mahoney ran okay in his Nov. 19 debut sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs at Aqueduct, rallying after a slow start to finish fourth by 3 3/4 lengths in a maiden special weight. Stretching out in distance figures to work wonders for Slip Mahoney, especially since hot trainer Brad Cox (3-for-6, 50% at Aqueduct since Nov. 4) wins at a 29% rate with horses running long for the first time.
Best of all, Slip Mahoney is the third choice on the morning line. If he delivers victory as a 7-2 single, we’ll be well on our way to cashing a nice Pick 6 payoff.
Turfway Park, Race 8: $9,134 Super High 5 carryover (4:15 p.m. ET)
After going unsolved for four straight racing days, the $1 Super High 5 at Turfway Park has accumulated a $9,134 carryover for Saturday. And truth be told, there’s a good chance no one solve the wager on Saturday either.
The carryover is up for grabs in Race 8, a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting six furlongs on Tapeta. With 14 entries (including two also-eligible runners), there are 240,240 possible outcomes before scratches.
The field is tough to analyze, but #8 Catcha Later Mo (12-1) offers appeal as a live longshot. The daughter of Mo Town has competed exclusively against maiden special weight company so far, most notably running second and third in a pair of five-furlong turf dashes at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Horses shipping in from Horseshoe Indianapolis have been winning frequently at Turfway this meet, often at enticing odds. Catcha Later Mo owns the highest Brisnet Speed rating in Saturday’s field, so we recommend betting her on top of at least some of your Super High 5 tickets.
Good luck!
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