Carryovers: $9,093 Super High 5 at Ellis Park, $12,240 Pick 6 at Colonial Downs

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a pair of Saturday carryovers at Ellis Park and Colonial Downs.

Ellis Park: Race 1: $9,093 Super High 5 carryover (12:50 p.m. ET)

The $9,093 Super High 5 carryover at Ellis Park is available to chase right off the bat in Race 1, a $30,000 maiden claimer taking place over six furlongs on dirt. The par winning Brisnet Speed rating for these conditions is 81.

Morning line favorite #4 Air It Out (2-1) looms as a win threat for trainer Keith Desormeaux, a 20% winner at Ellis Park this meet. He’s cracked the 80 Brisnet Speed rating plateau in three of his six starts and has hit the board in a trio of maiden special weights, including a couple sprinting six furlongs. Dropping in class for a $30,000 maiden claimer opens the door for victory under jockey James Graham, a 27% winner teaming up with Desormeaux over the last two months.

#7 J J’s Ranger (4-1) is the other key contender. A couple of recent turf starts have been disappointing, but during the spring J J’s Ranger finished third in a $50,000 maiden claimer and second in a $62,500 maiden claimer, both sprinting six furlongs on dirt. Returning to dirt and descending to the $30,000 level should allow J J’s Ranger to challenge for victory.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 4,7 with 4,7 with 3,6,9 with 3,6,9 with 2,3,6,8,9 ($36)
• $1 Super High 5: 7 with 3,6,9 with 4 with 3,6,9 with 2,3,6,8,9 ($18)
  Total: $54

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $12,240 Pick 6 carryover (2:58 p.m. ET)

Looking for a single to use in the $12,240 Pick 6 carryover at Colonial Downs? Look no further than #3 Lazio (2-1) in Race 4, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on turf.

Lazio ran second over this course, distance, and class level in his July 18 debut at Colonial Downs. There are reasons to believe he can go one better on Saturday. Four trainer stats are in his favor:

• Trainer Mary Lightner has been on fire at Colonial Downs this meet, going 7-3-3-0 (43%).
• Lightner wins at a 45% rate with second-time starters.
• Lightner wins at a 50% rate with horses running on grass for the second time.
• Since 2021, Lightner has gone 3-for-7 (43%) saddling experienced juveniles in turf sprints at Colonial Downs.

These powerful trainer angles, coupled with Lazio’s promising debut, suggest Lazio is a trustworthy single to start the Pick 6.

Good luck!