Carryovers: Churchill’s Super High 5, Aqueduct’s epic Pick 5

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson analyzes a trio of enticing Saturday carryovers at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct, including a six-figure Pick 5 carryover.

Churchill Downs, Race 2: $4,445 Super High 5 carryover (1:17 p.m. ET)

If you can select the top five finishers in Churchill’s Race 2—a $50,000 maiden claimer for fillies and mares sprinting six furlongs on dirt—you can win a share of a $4,445 Super High 5 carryover.

We suggest keying #8 Sally O’Malley (3-1) on top of your tickets. The morning line favorite has competed three times against maiden special weight competition. In her last two starts sprinting over the Churchill Downs main track, she’s finished third and fourth while earning Brisnet Speed ratings of 80 and 77.

Those happen to be two of the three highest numbers belonging to any of the horses in Saturday’s field. And in Sally O’Malley’s latest effort, she finished only two lengths behind Two Sharp, who returned to win her next start and finish second in the Prioress (G3).

With her strong Brisnet Speed ratings and encouraging last-out form line, Sally O’Malley looms as the horse to beat while dropping in class.

Aqueduct, Race 6: $39,020 Pick 6 carryover (3:08 p.m. ET)
Aqueduct, Race 7: $323,211 Pick 5 carryover (3:40 p.m. ET)

A couple of lucrative carryovers are on the table at Aqueduct. The Pick 6 prize pool is excellent—$39,020—but the Late Pick 5 carryover is gargantuan, coming in at $323,211.

The feature event in both sequences is Race 10, the $350,000 Jockey Club Oaks (G3) for three-year-old fillies racing 1 3/8 miles on turf. A large 11-horse field has turned out, but that doesn’t mean the race is inscrutable. A couple of runners who have competed primarily abroad—#4 Beautiful Love (4-1) and #7 Lady Mary (7-2)—boast strong win credentials.

Beautiful Love is a Godolphin homebred trained by Charlie Appleby. She won two out of six starts in England and Dubai before ending a six-month layoff with a sixth-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile Lake Placid (G2) at Saratoga last month. It wasn’t a great U.S. debut, but a slow early/fast late race shape didn’t help Beautiful Love’s chances, and stretching out over 1 3/8 miles may trigger the improvement she needs to shine.

As for Lady Mary, she’s done well competing in Germany, most recently finishing third in the Henkel-Preis der Diana (G1) (German Oaks) racing about 1 3/8 miles. She also finished second by a head in the Diana Trial (G3) racing about 1 1/4 miles. Clearly running long is a strong suit for Lady Mary.

We recommend taking a stand and using only Beautiful Love and Lady Mary in the Pick 5 and Pick 6.

Good luck!