Catching My Eye: Keeneland Opening Day

Horses that caught my eye on the opening day of the Keeneland 2023 spring meeting.

Defining Purpose, Julia Shining, or Punchbowl?

Of the top three in Friday’s Ashland (G1), maybe only the 20-1 winner Defining Purpose will run in the Kentucky Oaks (G1), as she is currently in third place on the leaderboard. Second place finisher Punchbowl is in 19th and third place finisher Julia Shining is in 17th.

Fourteen enter the gates but four more will be also-eligibles, so with a defection and a few scratches, all three of these fillies conceivably could be running on May 5. If so, give me Punchbowl going forward out of the Ashland.

All credit goes to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. for putting Defining Purpose in perfect position to win the Ashland, but she won’t be sitting in the catbird seat behind a 37-1 front-runner in the Oaks. Julia Shining did lose more ground of the three but never seemed to have the necessary rally.

Punchbowl, on the other hand, almost won even though she was trapped behind foes coming out of the second turn and had to cease momentum to find another way to daylight. As she stalled out, Defining Purpose grew bold on the lead, leaving Punchbowl chasing all the way home but not passing until after the wire.

Vahva or Positano Sunset?

A field of 12 three-year-old fillies lined up to go 6 1/2 furlongs on Friday, many of them waking up from their Oaks dreams and now resigned to the fact that two turns is out of the question. In the end Positano Sunset grinded it out past Vahva by a 1/2 length. These two battled it out and each had impressive aspects of their run on Friday, so the question is who to favor going forward.

At first glance Positano Sunset’s race appeared to be compromised by running in tight quarters and having to steady a couple of different times. Julien Leparoux definitely had a ton of horse and he was doing his best to not unleash Positano until the end.

Watching the head on replay, you see that in fact she had a perfect pocket form around her, allowing her to run under cover. When she split horses at the top of the stretch, the lane opened up for her at exactly the right moment. Positano Sunset ran a 93 Brisnet Speed figure, improving on her two-year-old top of 91.

Vahva on the other hand tended to the pace, pressuring Black Forest throughout while being pressured by Peacock Alley. She likely never got a breather, but still she surged in the stretch, making a bold move which will serve her well going forward. Vahva ran a 92 matching her two-year-old top.

Of the two, I’d take Vahva going forward, as I think Positano Sunset’s trip trouble might be overblown, whereas Vahva’s grueling first five panels surely took something out of her in her first sprint after cutting back from the Rachel Alexandra (G2).

Her World or Nota Bene?

The four-year-old lightly-raced daughter of Caravaggio, Her World, won the allowance turf sprint on Friday for trainer Wesley Ward, but had things gone a touch differently, Nota Bene would have nailed her. Nota Bene drifted and was guided all over the course at the beginning and end of the race, losing ground and costing her the win. Her World on the other hand had an easy lead with her stablemate doing much of the pressing. 

I like Nota Bene going forward, and I think we’ll still get some value backing the five-year-old Declaration of War mare trained by Ian Wilkes. She also had a tough race two-back at Gulfstream, hitting the gate, going way wide, and being compromised by the pace.

Hurricane Dream

The first turf race of Keeneland’s Spring meet went to French import Hurricane Dream. Making his second start in North America out of Graham Motion’s barn, the six-year-old son of Hurricane Cat beat a nice group of allowance ranks by over four lengths. As soon as he took the lead at the top of the stretch, he instantly opened up by three lengths. Wowing with his late surge, the beautiful chestnut received a 99 Brisnet Speed figure.

Hurricane Dream moves over the track like he can win at the graded stakes level, but there are a couple questions to keep in mind going forward: can he class up, and does he need softer going? However, tactically, Hurricane Dream has a nice advantage being a mid-pack stalker with a huge late turn of foot, a serious advantage over deep closers trying to accomplish a similar late run.