Catching My Eye: Kentucky Downs Opening Day

Talking with trainer Neil Pessin (his father designed the Kentucky Downs course, and he ran the meet for three years), he mentioned that time and again he sees horses outrun their odds in the next race after Kentucky Downs. I’m watching, taking notes, and will be looking to put this insight to use at the windows. Here are a few that caught my eye from opening day at Kentucky Downs, not all of them winners.

Carnaby Street didn’t break the speed figure charts in her two-year-old debut but still, I saw something more important than figures. Racing in the top three throughout, when Tyler Gaffalione asked to open up and split horses, Wesley Ward’s filly responded with an agile shifting out while accelerating uphill past Master Som and Fabulosity. Carnaby Street put the field to bed in the uphill stretch, finishing off the 6 1/2 furlongs to win by four-plus lengths.

Keep the two who kept her company in mind as well. Master Som and Fabulosity ran well through the opening six furlongs. But as they always say, at Kentucky Downs 6 1/2 runs more like seven furlongs, and these two should be live going this distance or shorter in their next outing.

How about that fifth-place finisher in Race 2 — Leblon. Eric Foster claimed this gelding in early June, and it just didn’t seem like the 2021-22 form would return, posting three descending speed figures and bottoming out in the race prior to this one, the lowest of his career. Leblon looked good on the Keeneland turf course facing Cellist, Floriform, and others last April, and I think he will run well there again soon.

Going the long mile, Leblon broke sharply, hitting his spot and continued to be keen advancing on the three frontrunners. His stalking trip was difficult in that he was always surrounded by horses, immediately in front, inside and outside. And swinging for home, he didn’t muster a late kick, but still kept on and narrowly got beat out for third.

Less than one length separated the top four in Race 3 on Thursday.  Viburnum got the win but had the advantage of being the only filly to have run over this course. Fairchild ran well on the lead, and Federalist Papers had a perfect trip pressing Fairchild but couldn't fully capitalize. A second-level optional claimer for three-year-olds and up, only one three-year-old ran, and that’s the one we want to focus on.

Roughly a Diamond couldn't have started the race worse, taking an awkward step and quickly conceding three-plus lengths to the field. Even though at 1 5/16 miles there was definitely time to make up for that, still, it didn't appear that Michelle Nihei’s filly liked the Kentucky Downs going. Especially at the end. The three-year-old didn't find an even stride or rhythm and awkwardly leapt forward as if each footing she landed didn’t suit her and she was searching for better ground. Expect to see another big late run from this filly wherever she lands next.

Gaffalione went for win No. 3 in the fourth race with first-timer Mendel’s Secret from Mike Maker’s barn. Taking the lead early on going one mile, two times in the stretch it looked like this two-year-old was going to fold: as the stalkers began to swallow the front, he accelerated, and then being headed by Decanted, he fought back on the inside and prevailed. Mendelssohn is proving to be quite the sire, winning with around 20% of his first-timers. Seeing the hutzpah of Mendel’s Secret going uphill and fighting off his stablemate, there's no doubt this colt will continue to do well by his pops.

Six-year-old Max K.O. knows how to win, notching his 10th career victory in Race 7 on Thursday. But this Saffie Joseph Jr. trainee found another level earning a 95 Brisnet Speed figure, beating the likes of Therapist, Sonneman, and Sprawl. Stalking throughout, Edgard Zayas unleashed his mount in the stretch, taking a commanding lead that only shrunk as Runnin' Ray came flying to come within two lengths.

In his race prior over Colonial Downs' turf course, he showed his ability to quicken, taking a commanding lead against a strong field, but he tired on a course that was not favorable to frontrunners. This half-million dollar earner has tactical options going forward, but it does seem that one mile in his sweet spot.